EPIDEMIOLOGIJA COVID-19: ŠTA SMO NAUČILI DO SADA?
Sažetak
Prvi slučaj u epidemiji atipične upale pluća nepoznate etiologije, kasnije potvrđen kao bolest uzrokovana virusom SARS-CoV-2, opisan je u Vuhanu (Kina), 8. decembra 2019. godine. Brzo širenje nove bolesti kovid-19 i posledice koje ostavlja potstaklo je Svetsku zdravstvenu organizaciju (SZO) da proglasi globalnu zdravstvenu pretnju, a 11. marta 2020. godine, SZO je zvanično klasifikovala kovid-19 kao pandemijsku bolest. Opšte je prihvaćeno da su oba pola i svi uzrasti u populaciji podložni infekciji SARS- CoV-2. Podaci iz stvarnog života pokazuju poteškoće u dostizanju praga kolektivnog imuniteta. Zahvaljujući vakcinaciji, neke populacije se približavaju teorijskom pragu kolektivnog imuniteta, ali je širenje virusa i dalje teško zaustaviti. Ako tome dodamo i činjenicu da još uvek ne znamo koliko traje postinfektivni imunitet, zaključuje se da je malo verovatno da će vakcinacija potpuno zaustaviti širenje virusa i da se to mora imati u vidu. Vakcine svakako značajno smanjuju stopu hospitalizacije i mortalitet, a pretpostavka je da virus neće uskoro nestati, ali će težina bolesti i njen smrtni ishod biti od marginalnog značaja. Razvoj epidemiološke situacije povezane sa kovid-19 se stalno menja i značajno se razlikuje u različitim delovima sveta, na šta utiču razlike u finansijskim resursima, zdravstvenoj infrastrukturi i svesti o prevenciji i kontroli kovid-19. Postoje pokušaji da se naprave dinamički prilagođene strategije kao odgovor na pandemiju kovid-19, koje bi predstavljale novu normalnost.
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