ZA ČIM ZVONA ZVONE?! PRILOG RAZUMEVANJU ZAVISNOSTI PANDEMIJE I GLOBALNE TRGOVINSKE RAZMENE
Sažetak
Izbijanje pandemije COVID-19 značajno je smanjilo i strukturno promenilo i veličinu i tokove međunarodne trgovine tokom 2020. i 2021. Iako je efekat zaraze na globalnu trgovinu očigledno negativan iz više razloga koji su elaborirani u radu, smatramo da je to u stvari evoluciona, očekivana i neizbežna posledica samog procesa globalizacije. Među ključnim trendovima koji utiču na sadašnjost i budućnost međunarodne trgovine, otprilike polovina njih je potpuno nezavisna, a druga polovina u najboljem slučaju poluzavisna od same pandemije. Drugim rečima, čini se da zvona zvone za pogrešnog osumnjičenog, utoliko što su ova dva fenomena sva je prilika kointegrisana, da i ne spominjemo ideološku i operativnu konfuziju u pozadini nedavno rasprostranjenih nastojanja da se trgovinskom politikom istovremeno postigne nekoliko netrgovinskih ciljeva sumnjive kompatibilnosti. Bez obzira na sive oblake ispred i iznad nas, neke mediteranske ekonomije - ako se pokažu sposobne i dovoljno fleksibilne – mogle bi na posletku postati nesuđeni laureati utešnih ekonomskih nagrada.
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