WHAT ARE THE BELLS RINGING FOR?! – A CONTRIBUTION TO UNDERSTANDING DEPENDENCE OF THE PANDEMIC AND GLOBAL TRADE

Marko G Malovic; Vesna Petrović

doi:10.5937/poseko21-37332

Marko G Malovic Educons univerzitet
Vesna Petrović Faculty of Business Economics, University of East Sarajevo

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/poseko21-37332

Keywords: COVID-19, International Trade, (De)Globalisation, Global Supply Chains

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The outburst of COVID-19 pandemics has heavily contracted and structurally altered both the size and the flows of international trade through 2020 and 2021. Even though contagion effect on global trade is clearly a negative one for a number of reasons elaborated in the paper, we venture to argue that this is in fact an evolutionary, expected and unavoidable consequence of the very globalisation process. Among the key trends affecting the present and future of the international trade, roughly half of them are fully independent and the other half at best semi-dependent from the pandemics itself. In other words, it appears that the bell tolls for the wrong suspect, in as much as the two phenomena might be cointegrated, not to mention the ideological and operational confusion behind recently widespread deliberations to deploy trade policies in order to simultaneously achieve several non-trade objectives of dubious compatibility. Notwithstanding the grim clouds ahead and above, some Mediterranean economies -if prove able and flexible enough- may yet turn out to be the unintended winners of the silver lining.

Author Biography

Vesna Petrović, Faculty of Business Economics, University of East Sarajevo

Katedra za teorijsku ekonomiju, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije - Bijeljina, vanredni profesor trenutno na funkciji dekana fakulteta

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