THE IMPACT OF STOCK EXCHANGE TURNOVER ON GDP IN REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

  • Nebojša Malenković Ekonomski fakultet u Subotici
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/poseko21-38317
Ključne reči: stock exchange, BELEX, economic growth, correlation, regression, Serbia

Sažetak


Rast berzanskog prometa povećava performanse kapitala unutar zemlje. U radu se razmatraju kretanja berzanskog prometa nakon svetske finansijske krize uz razmatranje nove globalne krize COVID-19 u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, u ovom radu se procenjuje korelacija između berzanskog prometa i pokazatelja BDP-a. S obzirom da je kriza COVID-19 skorašnja i da još uvek traje, dostupni zvanični podaci za poslednje dve godine još nisu potpuni. Cilj ovog istraživanja je, stoga, evaluacija uticaja berzanskog prometa na privredni rast u Republici Srbiji za period 2006-2020, sa odgovarajućim predviđanjima. Metodološki pristup se sastoji u primeni modela linearne regresije, uz prethodne testove statističke adekvatnosti. Rezultati ovog istraživanja ukazuju da rast berzanskog prometa ima pozitivan i statistički značajan uticaj na BDP u ovoj zemlji. Međutim, analiza predviđanja ukazuje da berzanski promet može imati negativan uticaj na BDP u narednim godinama, zbog čega postoji nekoliko predloga za donosioce odluka i buduća istraživanja.


Ključne reči: berza, BELEX, privredni rast, korelacija, regresija, Srbija

 

 

Reference


  1. Affari Italiani (2020). Jerusalmi (Borsa Italiana): "We need an efficient capital market". Retrieved from: https://www.affaritaliani.it/economia/jerusalmi-borsa-italiana-serve-un-mercato-di-capitali-efficiente-711927.html

  2. Ake, B., & Ognaligui, R. (2010). Financial Stock Market and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Case of Douala Stock Exchange in Cameroon. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(5), pp. 82-88.

  3. Baier, S. L., Dwyer Jr., G. P., & Tamura, R. (2004). Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth? Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(3), pp. 311-331. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.01.001

  4. BSE. (2020a). Decision on the Duration of Trading Phases Within Securities Trading Methods on the Segments of the Regulated Market and MTP Belex - 13.02.2019. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/77708

  5. BSE. (2020b). Decision on the Duration of Trading Phases Within Securities Trading Methods on the Segments of the Regulated Market and MTP Belex - EFFECTIVE 18.5.2020. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/78042

  6. BSE. (2021). Regulation Announcements. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/objava

  7. BSE. (2022a). Annual statistics. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/trgovanje/izvestaj/godisnji

  8. BSE. (2022b). History. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/o_berzi/istorijat

  9. BSE. (2022c). International cooperation. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/o_berzi/medjunarodna_saradnja

  10. Dey, K. D. (2005). Turnover and Return in Global Stock Markets. Emerging Markets Review, 6(1), pp. 45-67. DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2004.09.003

  11. Given, S. R. (1996). Economies of scale and scope as an explanation of merger and output diversification activities in the health maintenance organization industry. Journal of Health Economics, 15(6), pp. 685-713. DOI: 10.1016/s0167-6296(96)00500-0

  12. Grbić, M. (2020). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of the Republic of Serbia. Post-Communist Economies, 33(4), pp. 484-499. DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2020.1745566

  13. Grujić, M., & Rajčević, P. (2022). Comparative analysis of (un)readiness of listed joint-stock companies from the region to resist the crisis. Proceedings of Jahorina Business Forum 2022, East Sarajevo. Retrieved from: https://jbf.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/2022/ZR_JPF2022/33_Grujic_Rajcevic.pdf

  14. Kalaš, B., Stameski, N., & Alimpijević, A. (2016). Quantitative approach to stock exchange market-evidence from Serbia 2006-2015. International Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 4(3), pp. 21-30.

  15. Kisin, J. Mašović, A., & Ignjatović, J. (2021). Growing public debt as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Balkans Region: the case of North Macedonia and Serbia. Business Economics, XV(2), pp. 66-85. DOI: 10.5937/poseko20-35315

  16. Krasulja, N., Ivannikov, & N., Arsenijević, O. (2020). Organizational culture and behavior in the COVID-19 pandemic on the example of serbia. In International thematic proceedings COVID-19 pandemic crisis management a non-medical approach, pp. 167-191. Belgrade: Union – Nikola Tesla. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marko-Pavlovic-7/publication/350688959_Konferencija_Kovid_2020/links/606d7ee3299bf13f5d5fe794/Konferencija-Kovid-2020.pdf#page=167

  17. Marinković, S., Stojković, D., & Radović, O. (2013). Stock market development and economic growth: The Case of Belgrade Stock Exchange. Actual Problems of Economics, 143(5), pp. 399-408.

  18. Maritz, A. (2020). A Multi-Disciplinary Business Approach to COVID-19: La Trobe Business School Perspectives. International Journal of Organizational Innovation, 13(1), pp. 45-62. Retrieved from: https://www.ijoi-online.org/attachments/article/266/45%20final.pdf

  19. Marjanović, D., & Đukić, M. (2020). Ekonomske mere za ublažavanje posledica COVID-19. In Black swan in the world economy 2020. Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd, pp. 91-105. Retrieved from: http://ebooks.ien.bg.ac.rs/1490/1/5.%20marjanovic%2C%20djukic.pdf

  20. Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2013). Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change. Economic Modelling, 32, pp. 316-324. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015

  21. Masoud, N. M. H. (2017). The impact of stock market performance upon economic growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), pp. 788-798.

  22. NALED. (2022). Efekti ekonomskih mera za ublažavanje negativnih posledica COVID-19 na privredu. Belgrade: NALED.

  23. NBS. (2022). Statistics. Retrieved from: https://nbs.rs/en/drugi-nivo-navigacije/statistika/index.html

  24. Osaseri, G., & Osamwonyi, I. O. (2019). Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in BRICS. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(1), pp. 23-30. DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v10n1p23

  25. Osinubi, T. S. (2004). Does Stock Market Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria? The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance, 10(3), pp. 17-35.

  26. Perić, M. (2020). Impact of FDI Inflow on Average Wage and Employment in Serbia. Management: Journal of Sustainable Business and Management Solutions in Emerging Economies, 25(1), pp. 13-22. DOI: 10.7595/management.fon.2019.0007

  27. Petros, J. (2012). The effect of the stock exchange on economic growth: a case of the Zimbabwe stock exchange. Research in Business and Economics Journal, 6, pp. 1-17.

  28. Rađenović, T., & Rakić, B. (2017). Interdependence between Level of Financial System Development and Economic Growth in Serbia. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 19(6), pp. 645-665. DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2017.1328896

  29. Rakić, B., & Rađenović, T. (2013). Importance of Capital Market Efficiency for Economic Growth: the Case of Serbia. Actual Problems of Economics, 140(2), pp. 318-330.

  30. Raza, S.A., Jawaid, S. T., Afshan, S., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2015). Is stock market sensitive to foreign capital inflows and economic growth? Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 8(3), pp. 142-164.

  31. Ritter, J. R., Signori, A., & Vismara, S. (2013). Economies of scope and IPO activity in Europe. In M. Levis & S. Vismara (Eds.), Handbook on research on IPO (pp. 11-34). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

  32. RZS. (2022). Data base – Statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB

  33. Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalization, stock markets and economic development. Economic Journal, 107(442), pp.771-782. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00042.x

  34. Službeni glasnik. (2020a). Uredba o utvrđivanju Programa finansijske podrške privrednim subjektima za održavanje likvidnosti i obrtna sredstva u otežanim ekonomskim uslovima usled pandemije COVID-19 izazvane virusom SARS-CoV-2. Službeni glasnik RS, br. 54/2020 i 57/2020. Retrieved from: https://mfin.gov.rs/sr/propisi-1/uredba-o-utvrdjivanju-programa-finansijske-podrske-privrednim-subjektima-za-odrzavanje-likvidnosti-1

  35. Službeni glasnik. (2020b). Uredba o fiskalnim pogodnostima i direktnim davanjima privrednim subjektima u privatnom sektoru i novčanoj pomoći građanima i cilju ublažavanja ekonomskih posledica nastalih usled bolesti COVID-19. Službeni glasnik RS, br. 54/2020 i 60/2020. Retrieved from: https://www.paragraf.rs/propisi/uredba-o-fiskalnim-pogodnostima-privredi-privatnom-sektoru-gradjanima.html

  36. Verma, P., Ankur, D., Anuj, B., Ashok, A., Kestwal, M.C., & Kumar, P. (2021). A Statistical Analysis of Impact of COVID19 on the Global Economy and Stock Index Returns. SN Computer Science, 2(27), pp. 1-13. DOI: 10.1007/s42979-020-00410-w

  37. Wang, B., & Ajit, D. (2013). Stock market and economic growth in China. Economics Bulletin, 33(1), pp. 95-103.

  38. Živković, A. (2021). Međuzavisnost berzanskih indikatora i BDP-a na primeru odabranih balkans kih zemalja. Ekonomija: teorija i praksa, 14(3), pp. 44-63. DOI: 10.5937/etp2103044Q

Objavljeno
2023/10/22
Broj časopisa
Vol. 21 Br. 1 (2022): Poslovna ekonomija
Rubrika
Originalni naučni članak