THE IMPACT OF STOCK EXCHANGE TURNOVER ON GDP IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
Abstract
Stock exchange turnover growth increases the capital performance within a country. This paper examines the stock exchange turnover trends after the global financial crisis while considering the novel COVID-19 global crisis in Republic of Serbia. Moreover, this paper estimates the correlation between the stock exchange turnover and GDP indicators. Since the COVID-19 crises is recent, the available official data for the last two years are not complete yet. Therefore, the aim of this research is to measure the impact of stock exchange turnover on economic growth in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2006-2020, with respective predictions. The methodological approach consist is the application of linear regression model, with previous statistical adequacy tests. The final results of this research indicate that the growth of stock exchange turnover has positive and statistically significant impact on GDP in this country. However, the prediction analysis indicates that the stock exchange turnover may have a negative impact on GDP in the next years, which is why there are several suggestions for decision makers and further research.
Key words: stock exchange, BELEX, economic growth, correlation, regression, Serbia
References
- Affari Italiani (2020). Jerusalmi (Borsa Italiana): "We need an efficient capital market". Retrieved from: https://www.affaritaliani.it/economia/jerusalmi-borsa-italiana-serve-un-mercato-di-capitali-efficiente-711927.html
- Ake, B., & Ognaligui, R. (2010). Financial Stock Market and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Case of Douala Stock Exchange in Cameroon. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(5), pp. 82-88.
- Baier, S. L., Dwyer Jr., G. P., & Tamura, R. (2004). Does opening a stock exchange increase economic growth? Journal of International Money and Finance, 23(3), pp. 311-331. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.01.001
- BSE. (2020a). Decision on the Duration of Trading Phases Within Securities Trading Methods on the Segments of the Regulated Market and MTP Belex - 13.02.2019. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/77708
- BSE. (2020b). Decision on the Duration of Trading Phases Within Securities Trading Methods on the Segments of the Regulated Market and MTP Belex - EFFECTIVE 18.5.2020. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/78042
- BSE. (2021). Regulation Announcements. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/regulativa/vesti/objava
- BSE. (2022a). Annual statistics. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/trgovanje/izvestaj/godisnji
- BSE. (2022b). History. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/o_berzi/istorijat
- BSE. (2022c). International cooperation. Retrieved from: https://www.belex.rs/eng/o_berzi/medjunarodna_saradnja
- Dey, K. D. (2005). Turnover and Return in Global Stock Markets. Emerging Markets Review, 6(1), pp. 45-67. DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2004.09.003
- Given, S. R. (1996). Economies of scale and scope as an explanation of merger and output diversification activities in the health maintenance organization industry. Journal of Health Economics, 15(6), pp. 685-713. DOI: 10.1016/s0167-6296(96)00500-0
- Grbić, M. (2020). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of the Republic of Serbia. Post-Communist Economies, 33(4), pp. 484-499. DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2020.1745566
- Grujić, M., & Rajčević, P. (2022). Comparative analysis of (un)readiness of listed joint-stock companies from the region to resist the crisis. Proceedings of Jahorina Business Forum 2022, East Sarajevo. Retrieved from: https://jbf.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/2022/ZR_JPF2022/33_Grujic_Rajcevic.pdf
- Kalaš, B., Stameski, N., & Alimpijević, A. (2016). Quantitative approach to stock exchange market-evidence from Serbia 2006-2015. International Journal of Applied Economic Studies, 4(3), pp. 21-30.
- Kisin, J. Mašović, A., & Ignjatović, J. (2021). Growing public debt as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Western Balkans Region: the case of North Macedonia and Serbia. Business Economics, XV(2), pp. 66-85. DOI: 10.5937/poseko20-35315
- Krasulja, N., Ivannikov, & N., Arsenijević, O. (2020). Organizational culture and behavior in the COVID-19 pandemic on the example of serbia. In International thematic proceedings COVID-19 pandemic crisis management a non-medical approach, pp. 167-191. Belgrade: Union – Nikola Tesla. Retrieved from: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marko-Pavlovic-7/publication/350688959_Konferencija_Kovid_2020/links/606d7ee3299bf13f5d5fe794/Konferencija-Kovid-2020.pdf#page=167
- Marinković, S., Stojković, D., & Radović, O. (2013). Stock market development and economic growth: The Case of Belgrade Stock Exchange. Actual Problems of Economics, 143(5), pp. 399-408.
- Maritz, A. (2020). A Multi-Disciplinary Business Approach to COVID-19: La Trobe Business School Perspectives. International Journal of Organizational Innovation, 13(1), pp. 45-62. Retrieved from: https://www.ijoi-online.org/attachments/article/266/45%20final.pdf
- Marjanović, D., & Đukić, M. (2020). Ekonomske mere za ublažavanje posledica COVID-19. In Black swan in the world economy 2020. Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd, pp. 91-105. Retrieved from: http://ebooks.ien.bg.ac.rs/1490/1/5.%20marjanovic%2C%20djukic.pdf
- Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A., & Marques, A. C. (2013). Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change. Economic Modelling, 32, pp. 316-324. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015
- Masoud, N. M. H. (2017). The impact of stock market performance upon economic growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), pp. 788-798.
- NALED. (2022). Efekti ekonomskih mera za ublažavanje negativnih posledica COVID-19 na privredu. Belgrade: NALED.
- NBS. (2022). Statistics. Retrieved from: https://nbs.rs/en/drugi-nivo-navigacije/statistika/index.html
- Osaseri, G., & Osamwonyi, I. O. (2019). Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in BRICS. International Journal of Financial Research, 10(1), pp. 23-30. DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v10n1p23
- Osinubi, T. S. (2004). Does Stock Market Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria? The ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance, 10(3), pp. 17-35.
- Perić, M. (2020). Impact of FDI Inflow on Average Wage and Employment in Serbia. Management: Journal of Sustainable Business and Management Solutions in Emerging Economies, 25(1), pp. 13-22. DOI: 10.7595/management.fon.2019.0007
- Petros, J. (2012). The effect of the stock exchange on economic growth: a case of the Zimbabwe stock exchange. Research in Business and Economics Journal, 6, pp. 1-17.
- Rađenović, T., & Rakić, B. (2017). Interdependence between Level of Financial System Development and Economic Growth in Serbia. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 19(6), pp. 645-665. DOI: 10.1080/19448953.2017.1328896
- Rakić, B., & Rađenović, T. (2013). Importance of Capital Market Efficiency for Economic Growth: the Case of Serbia. Actual Problems of Economics, 140(2), pp. 318-330.
- Raza, S.A., Jawaid, S. T., Afshan, S., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2015). Is stock market sensitive to foreign capital inflows and economic growth? Evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 8(3), pp. 142-164.
- Ritter, J. R., Signori, A., & Vismara, S. (2013). Economies of scope and IPO activity in Europe. In M. Levis & S. Vismara (Eds.), Handbook on research on IPO (pp. 11-34). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
- RZS. (2022). Data base – Statistics. Retrieved from: https://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB
- Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalization, stock markets and economic development. Economic Journal, 107(442), pp.771-782. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.1997.tb00042.x
- Službeni glasnik. (2020a). Uredba o utvrđivanju Programa finansijske podrške privrednim subjektima za održavanje likvidnosti i obrtna sredstva u otežanim ekonomskim uslovima usled pandemije COVID-19 izazvane virusom SARS-CoV-2. Službeni glasnik RS, br. 54/2020 i 57/2020. Retrieved from: https://mfin.gov.rs/sr/propisi-1/uredba-o-utvrdjivanju-programa-finansijske-podrske-privrednim-subjektima-za-odrzavanje-likvidnosti-1
- Službeni glasnik. (2020b). Uredba o fiskalnim pogodnostima i direktnim davanjima privrednim subjektima u privatnom sektoru i novčanoj pomoći građanima i cilju ublažavanja ekonomskih posledica nastalih usled bolesti COVID-19. Službeni glasnik RS, br. 54/2020 i 60/2020. Retrieved from: https://www.paragraf.rs/propisi/uredba-o-fiskalnim-pogodnostima-privredi-privatnom-sektoru-gradjanima.html
- Verma, P., Ankur, D., Anuj, B., Ashok, A., Kestwal, M.C., & Kumar, P. (2021). A Statistical Analysis of Impact of COVID19 on the Global Economy and Stock Index Returns. SN Computer Science, 2(27), pp. 1-13. DOI: 10.1007/s42979-020-00410-w
- Wang, B., & Ajit, D. (2013). Stock market and economic growth in China. Economics Bulletin, 33(1), pp. 95-103.
- Živković, A. (2021). Međuzavisnost berzanskih indikatora i BDP-a na primeru odabranih balkans kih zemalja. Ekonomija: teorija i praksa, 14(3), pp. 44-63. DOI: 10.5937/etp2103044Q
