Prediction and analysis of Slovakian timber trade on global market conditions
Abstract
In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management), prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.
References
Anonymous. (2015). Green report, years 2005 – 2015, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development of the Slovak Republic (www.mpsr.sk).
Cipra, T. (1986). Analysis of time series with economy applications. SNTL Prague. (In Czech).
Gejdoš, M., Suchomel, J., & Stasiak-Betlejewska, R. (2011). Analysis of wood resources and price comparation in Slovakia and selected countries. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference Woodworking Techniques, ČZU Prague, 451-460.
Grzegorzewska, E., & Stasiak-Betlejewska, R. (2015). The influence of global crisis on financial liquidity and changes in corporate debt of the furniture sector in Poland. Drvna Industrija, 65 (4), 315-322.
Grladinović, T., Oblak, L., & Hitka, M. (2007). Production management information system in wood processing and furniture manufacture. Drvna Industrija, 58 (3), 2007, 141-146.
Hinsch, Ch., & Wächter, F. (2014). Why we need 100 percent renewable energies: A Plea for the Energiewende. Serbian Journal of Management, 9 (1), 121 – 130.
Holzkurier. (years 2000-2015).
Němec, M., Dado, M., & Danihelová, Z. (2014). Document A study on occupational noise exposure of sawmill workers. Akustika, 21 (1), 31-34.
Suchomel, J., Gejdoš, M., Ambrušová, L., & Šulek, R. (2012). Analysis of price changes of selected roundwood assortments in some Central Europe countries. Journal of Forest Science, 11, 483–491.
Patráš, I. (2015). Transparency as one of the objectives from National Program the Wood Utilization Potential in Slovakia – Rating as one of the tools for reaching the transparency. In: Current problems in financing of forestry-wood complex. TU Zvolen. (In Slovak).
Simanov, V. (2009). Fuel, or assortment for energy use? Biom.cz [online]. 2009-07-27 [cit. 2011-06-20]. Available at: <http://biom.cz/cz/odborne-clanky/palivo-nebo-sortimenty-uzitkoveho-drivi?sel_ids=1&ids[x63eb9e2d85f315a7d7faeed949f0fd0a]=1>. (In Czech)
Suchomel, J., & Gejdoš, M. (2009). Forest harvesting and transportation technologies: part assortments of raw-wood and commodity expertising in Forestry. TU Zvolen.
Suchomel, J., & Gejdoš, M. (2008). Development analysis of technical onditions and prices of raw-wood assortments. TU Zvolen. (In Slovak).
Teplická, K., Čulková, K., & Železník, O. (2015). Application of bayess principle optimum – Optimization model for managerial decision and continual improvement. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 12 (2), 170-179.
Web references:
www.nbs.sk
www.cnb.cz
www.czso.cz
www.forestportal.sk
The Author wishes to submit the Work to SJM for publication. To enable SJM to publish the Work and to give effect to the parties’ intention set forth herein, they have agreed to cede the first right to publication and republication in the SJM Journal.
Cession
The Author hereby cedes to SJM, who accepts the cession, to the copyright in and to the paper.
The purpose of the cession is to enable SJM to publish the Work, as first publisher world-wide, and for republication in the SJM Journal, and to grant the right to others to publish the Work world-wide, for so long as such copyright subsists;
SJM shall be entitled to edit the work before publication, as it deems fit, subject to the Authors approval
The Author warrants to SJM that:
- the Author is the owner of the copyright in the Work, whether as author or as reassigned from the Author’s employee and that the Author is entitled to cede the copyright to SJM;
- the paper (or any of its part) is not submitted or accepted for publication in any other Journal;
- the Work is an original work created by the Author;
- the Author has not transferred, ceded, or assigned the copyright, or any part thereof, to any third party; or granted any third party a licence or other right to the copyright, which may affect or detract from the rights granted to SJM in terms of this agreement.
The Author hereby indemnifies the SJM as a body and its individual members, to the fullest extent permitted in law, against all or any claims which may arise consequent to the warranties set forth.
No monetary consideration shall be payable by SJM to the Author for the cession, but SJM shall clearly identify the Author as having produced the Work and ensure that due recognition is given to the Author in any publication of the Work.
Should SJM, in its sole discretion, elect not to publish the Work within 1 year after the date of this agreement, the cession shall lapse and be of no further effect. In such event the copyright shall revert to the Author and SJM shall not publish the Work, or any part thereof, without the Author’s prior written consent.