Фискални менаџмент и политички буџетски циклуси у транзиционим економијама: анализа панел података
Sažetak
У раду се, на бази релевантних статистичких тестова, анализира утицај изборног процеса на трајекторију фискалних показатеља у транзиционим земљама. Циљ истраживања је да идентификује политичку манипулацију појединих механизама фискалне политике у транзиционим земљама. Фокус анализе је на расту јавне потрошње, смањењу јавних прихода и стварању дефицита у буџету као кохерентних последица фискалне експанзије у предизборном периоду. Тестирањем се не долази до релеватних доказа о коришћењу пореске стимулације као облику политичког деловања на економску сферу. С друге стране, резултати истраживања указују да у посматраним земљама заиста долази до раста јавне потрошње у периоду пре изборног процеса и последично до раста буџетских дефицита. Међутим, према истим налазима, у постизборном периоду не долази до редукције јавне потрошње. Раст потрошње се наставља, али у мањем степену, што последично води смањењу буџетског дефицита.
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