Детерминанте СДИ у Европи и утицај Кине
Sažetak
Упркос недавној забринутости због све већег утицаја спољних инвеститора на Европску унију (ЕУ) и западни Балкан, развијене европске земље и даље су доминантан извор страних директних инвестиција (СДИ) у региону, што потврђује користи од чланства у ЕУ. Истовремено, убрзано повезивање и нижи трговински трошкови у земљама које су у процесу приступања и суседним земљама одређују раст СДИ из Кине, посебно путем „Belt and Road Initiative“ (БРИ). Коришћењем панела података током 2000-2019 за 34 земље, које чине 89% свих европских СДИ, прво се испитују обрасци СДИ широм Европе, упоређује се ЕУ са новим државама чланицама и западним Балканом; проверава се значај чланства у ЕУ за стране директне инвестиције, што доводи до смањења трговинских трошкова и побољшања повезаности. Стога се нове државе чланице ЕУ (НМС) и западни Балкан појављују и као матична држава и као претприступно одредиште у ЕУ. Затим, израчунавају се индекси трговинских трошкова за сваку одабрану земљу и партнере током времена и налази се да су Европа и Кина уско повезане трговином и СДИ. То значи да јаче везе са Кином, земље из истраживаног узорка, могу остварити по цену ублажавања односа са ЕУ. На крају, инкорпорирајући индексе трговинских трошкова у ФДИ модел, процењује се утицај повезаности на СДИ и процењује се како је БРИ утицао на СДИ у Европи. Поред тога, потврђено је да стари оквир хоризонталних и вертикалних СДИ није довољно репрезентативан, и да се чак и нове сложене вертикалне или извозно оријентисане СДИ стратегије данас се мењају.
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