Климатске промене у ЕУ: кластер анализа и регресија

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/sjm18-43601
Ključne reči: емисије угљен-диоксида, друштвени фактори климатских промена, енергетска ефикасност, савремене технологије, обновљиви извори енергије, демографска кретања

Sažetak


Климатске промене се често посматрају као најглобалнији и најкомплекснији проблем са којим се свет суочио у досадашњем развоју. Емисије штетних гасова, пораст температуре, променљиве количине падавина, појава екстремних временских прилика утичу на све земље независно од њихове географске позиције и нивоа развоја, детерминишући њихове производне потенцијале и квалитет животних услова становништва. Предмет и циљ овог рада је да испита утицај економских, технолошких и демографских детерминанти на емисију СО2 у 18 држава Европске Уније у временском периоду од 2011. до 2020. године. У истраживању су коришћени метода кластер анализе к-средњих вредности и панел регресиона анализа. Применом метода к-средњих вреднсти, извршено је груписање 18 земаља Европске уније у 2 кластера, према висини емисија одабраних гасова стаклене баште (CO2, CH4, HFC, PFC, SF6) per capita. У “зеленом кластеру” налазе се следеће земље: Чешка, Немачка, Аустрија, Пољска, Белгија, Ирскa и Холандија. “Црвени кластер” укључује остале анализиране земље Европске уније. Резултати панел регресионог модела у “зеленом кластеру” показали су да на емисију СО2 статистички значајно и позитивно утичу Енергетска ефикасност и Производња електричне енергије из необновљивих извора. С друге стране, резултати анализе у “црвеном кластеру” сугерисали су да Трошкови истраживања и развоја представљају најважнији предиктор емисија СО2.

Biografija autora

Miloš Krstić, Univerzitet u Nišu, Prirodno-matematički fakultet, Departman za matematiku

Miloš Krstić rođen je 30. jula 1983. godine u Leskovcu. Osnovnu i srednju školu završio je u Leskovcu. Diplomirao je na Ekonomskom fakultetu Univerziteta u Nišu 2008. godine sa prosečnom ocenom 9,83. Završni (master) rad pod naslovom Koncepcije ekonomske racionalnosti u teoriji racionalnog izbora odbranio je septembra 2010. godine. Doktorsku disertaciju pod nazivom Teorijski modeli racionalnog ponašanja u savremenoj ekonomskoj nauci, odbranio je 17. maja 2014. godine pred Komisijom u sastavu: prof. dr Dragan Petrović (mentor), prof. dr Dragoslav Kitanović (predsednik Komisije) i prof. dr Slavica Manić (član) i time stekao zvanje doktor nauka – ekonomske nauke.

Zaposlen je na Prirodno-matematičkom fakultetu Univerziteta u Nišu, gde je angažovan na poslovima višeg naučnog saradnika. Objavio je jednu monografiju i više desetina radova u naučnim časopisima, kao i u tematskim zbornicima nacionalnog i međunarodnog značaja.

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Objavljeno
2023/06/20
Broj časopisa
Vol. 18 Br. 1 (2023): Serbian Journal of Management
Rubrika
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