Менаџмент јавног дуга у Србији у доба транзиције, велике рецесије и Ковид 19 пандемије
Sažetak
Овај рад испитује нелинеарно асиметрично понашање односа јавног дуга/БДП у Србији у прве две деценије економске транзиције након политичких и тржишних реформи започетих почетком двадесет првог века. Користећи кварталне податке за однос јавног дуга/БДП, дворежимски самоузбудљиви ниво ауторегресивног прага ("SETAR") модел реда један идентификује праг односа јавног дуга/БДП од 66.2% изнад којег креатори фискалне политике у Србији предузимају корективне мере у облик повећане фискалне опрезности. Процењени праг односа јавног дуга/БДП отприлике одговара прагу од 60% из фискалних критеријума из Мастрихта и показује како креатори фискалне политике у Србији систематски игноришу ограничење од 45% јавног дуга/БДП постављено у националним фискалним правилима. Овакво понашање фискалне политике могло би да угрози кредибилитет фискалних институција у Србији и има негативан утицај на фискалну дисциплину и вероватноћу државног неизвршења обавеза.
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