ВИШЕВЕКТОРСКА СПОЉНА ПОЛИТИКА АЗЕРБЕЈЏАНА
Sažetak
Геополитички положај између Русије, Ирана и Турске, као и значајне енергетске резерве, омогућили су Азербејџану да развије динамичну и флексибилну спољну политику у циљу очувања своје безбедности, територијалног интегритета и економског просперитета. Промене и изазови у регионалној безбедности били су изражени током последњих десет година, од обновљеног сукоба са Јерменијом до продубљивања сарадње са Турском и Русијом, уз настојање да се одрже стабилни односи са Западом, укључујући Сједињене Америчке Државе. Као држава смештена на раскршћу евроазијских сила, са ресурсима од стратешког значаја (нафта и гас), Азербејџан води вишевекторску спољну политику која настоји да балансира утицаје Русије, Турске, Ирана, Сједињених Америчких Држава и, у ширем смислу, Запада. Рад се фокусира на односе са кључним регионалним и глобалним актерима, са посебним освртом на дугогодишњи конфликт са Јерменијом у Нагорно-Карабаху, растућу сарадњу са Турском, дипломатско маневрисање у односима са Русијом и Ираном, као и ограничен, али значајан утицај САД. Циљ рада је да се анализирају безбедносни и геополитички аспекти вишевекторске спољне политике Азербејџана у периоду 2014–2024. године. Методолошки, истраживање се ослања на анализу секундарних извора, компаративну анализу регионалних односа, студију случаја (Нагорно-Карабах), као и анализу политичких изјава, званичних докумената и безбедносних индикатора. Рад користи реалистички теоријски оквир, у ком државе делују на основу националних интереса у систему анархије и сталне борбе за моћ и утицај.
Reference
Abdul, Nazrin. 2024. “Azerbaijan: A Key Hub on the Eurasian Transport Route.” AzerNews. September 21, 2024. Last Accessed on May 9, 2025. https://www.azernews.az/analysis/231539.html
AIR Center. 2019. “Issues a Press Release on TANAP Project Second Phase Launch.” November 29, 2019. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://aircenter.az/en/post/air-center-issues-a-press-release-on-tanap-project-second-phase-launch-146
AIR Center. 2024. The Main Obstacle to a Peace Agreement Between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Baku, December 10, 2024. Last Accessed on September 1, 2025. https://aircenter.az/uploads/T1bMalcBO8yp.pdf
Anceschi, Luca. 2020. Analysing Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy: Regime Neo-Eurasianism in the Nazarbaev Era. London: Routledge.
Azerbaijan.az. 2025. “Azerbaijan–Eurasian Transport Hub.” Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://azerbaijan.az/en/related-information/165
Bilban, Christoph, Frederic Labarre, and George Niculescu, eds. 2024. Does the EU Need a Strategy for the South Caucasus? Vienna: Republic of Austria, Federal Ministry of Defence. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.bmlv.gv.at/pdf_pool/publikationen/rssc_sgi_24_14_webversion.pdf
Breuning, Marijke. 2007. Foreign Policy Analysis: A Comparative Introduction. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Last Accessed on September 10, 2025. http://ndl.ethernet.edu.et/bitstream/123456789/24318/1/83.pdf
Contessi, Nicola. 2015. “Foreign and Security Policy Diversification in Eurasia: Issue Splitting, Co-alignment, and Relational Power.” Problems of Post-Communism 62 (5): 299–311. DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2015.1026788.
David, Steven R. 1991. “Explaining Third World Alignment.” World Politics 43 (2): 233–256. DOI: 10.2307/2010472
De Waal, Thomas. 2021. The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in Its Fourth Decade. CEPS Working Document No. 2021-02. Last Accessed on May 10, 2025. https://cdn.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/WD2021-02_The-Nagorny-Karabakh-Conflict-in-its-Fourth-Decade.pdf
De Waal, Thomas. 2024. “In the Caucasus, Another Year of War or Peace.” Carnegie Endowment. February 13, 2024. Last Accessed on May 10, 2025. https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2024/02/in-the-caucasus-another-year-of-war-or-peace?lang=en
Eurasia Today. 2024. «Что беспокоит и не устраивает Иран в проекте создания Зангезурского коридора?». Дата обращения 08.05.2025. https://eurasiatoday.ru/chto-bespokoit-i-ne-ustraivaet-iran-v-proekte-sozdaniya-zangezurskogo-koridora/
Grynszpan, Emmanuel, and Faustine Vincent. 2024. “Azerbaijan Asserts Itself as a Regional Power.” Le Monde. April 24, 2024. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/04/24/azerbaijan-asserts-itself-as-a-regional-power_6669367_4.html
Gurbanov, Yunis. 2024. Geopolitics and Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Region: Developments After the Downfall of the Soviet Union. Bielefeld: Verlag. DOI: 10.14361/9783839472934
Hajiyev, Shahmar. 2024. “COP29: Azerbaijan Focuses on Environmental Protection and Global Peace Efforts.” The Liberum. October 22, 2024. Last Accessed on January 23, 2025. https://theliberum.com/cop29-azerbaijan-focusses-on-environmental-protection-and-global-peace-efforts/
Huseynov, Vasif. 2024. Revisiting the 44-Day War: An In-Depth Retrospective. Baku: AIR Center. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://aircenter.az/uploads/dfQFzhRwSaNr.pdf
Jafarova, Esmira. 2020. “Is Azerbaijan a ‛Middle Powerʼ?” Modern Diplomacy. May 16, 2020. Last Accessed on May 23, 2025. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/05/16/is-azerbaijan-a-middle-power
Koolaee, Elaheh, and Ahmad Rashidi. 2024. “The Zangezur Corridor and Threats to the Interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South Caucasus.” Caucasus Analytical Digest (CAD) 136. DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000657553
Kuik, Cheng-Chwee. 2008. “The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore’s Response to a Rising China.” Contemporary Southeast Asia 30 (2): 159–185. Last Accessed on September 3, 2025. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265754648_The_Essence_of_Hedging_Malaysia_and_Singapore's_Response_to_a_Rising_China
Mammadli, Matin. 2023. “Multi-Vector Foreign Policy of Heydar Aliyev.” AIR Center. Last Accessed on September 4, 2025. https://aircenter.az/en/single/the-multi-vectored-foreign-policy-of-heydar-aliyev-1194
Miholjčić Ivković, Nina. 2023. “Azerbaijan–Israel Strengthened: Partnership and Its Implications for Regional Geopolitics.” Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CAD) 4 (2): 49–59 Last Accessed on May 5, 2025. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376754219_Azerbaijan-Israel_Strengthened_Partnership_and_its_Implications_for_Regional_Geopolitics
Morgenthau, Hans J. 1948. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: Alfred A. Knopf. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.74487/page/n8/mode/1up
Nasibov, Murad. 2024. “Hedging Foreign Policies.” Baku Dialogues: Policy Perspectives on the Silk Road Region. Last Accessed on September 3, 2025. https://bakudialogues.idd.az/articles/hedging-foreign-policies-07-08-2024
Omuraliev, Kubanychbek. 2024. “The Organization of Turkic States: A Decade and a Half of Unity and Progress.” Opinion. October 3, 2024. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/opinion/opinion-the-organization-of-turkic-states-a-decade-and-a-half-of-unity-and-progress/3350488
Organization of Turkic States. 2022. “4th Young Leaders Forum of the Organization of Turkic States Held in Bukhara.” June 5, 2022. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.turkicstates.org/en/news/4th-young-leaders-forum-of-the-organization-of-turkic-states-held-in-bukhara-and-bukhara-declared-as-the-first-youth-capital-of-the-turkic-world
Parezanović, Marko M. 2022. „Rat u Nagorno Karabahu 2020. godine – uloga svetskih i regionalnih sila.” Baština 32 (58) 113–136. DOI: 10.5937/bastina32-40515
Poghosyan, Benyamin. 2022. “US Policy in the South Caucasus Prior to and After the 2020 Karabakh War in the Context of the Evolving Regional and International Geopolitics.” Journal of Political Science: Bulletin of Yerevan University 1: 36–50. DOI: 10.46991/JOPS/2022.1.3.036
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2021. “Shusha Declaration on Allied Relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Turkey.” June 16, 2021. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://president.az/en/articles/view/52122
Republic of Armenia, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2023. “Press Release: Armenia–Azerbaijan Negotiations in Washington.” June 29, 2023. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2023/06/29/arm_aze/12069
Shafiyev, Farid. 2007. “Ethnic Myths and Perceptions as a Hurdle to Conflict Settlement: The Armenian-Azerbaijani Case.” The Caucasus & Globalization 1 (2): 57–70.
Souleimanov, Emil A., and Michael Baranovsky Kraus. 2017. Iran’s Azerbaijan Question in Evolution. Washington DC: Central Asia–Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.silkroadstudies.org/resources/pdf/SilkRoadPapers/2017-souleimanov-kraus-irans-azerbaijan-question-in-evolution.pdf
TANAP. n.d. “TANAP.” Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://tanap.com/en/tanap-project
The Observatory of Economic Complexity [OEC]. n.d. “Azerbaijan / Turkey.” Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/aze/partner/tur
The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. 2023. The Foreign Trade of Azerbaijan. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.stat.gov.az/source/trade/?lang=en
Trend. 2022. “‛TurAz Eagle – 2022ʼ Joint Flight-Tactical Exercises wraps up in Azerbaijan [PHOTO/VIDEO].” Azernews.az. September 10, 2022. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://www.azernews.az/nation/199167.html
Valiyev, Anar. 2017. “Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy: From Balancing to Multivectorism.” In Eastern Voices: Europe’s East Faces an Unsettled West, eds. Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister, 133–149. Washington DC: Center for Transatlantic Relations.
Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley.
World Bank. 2023. Middle Trade and Transport Corridor: Policies and Investments to Triple Freight Volumes and Halve Travel Time by 2030. Washington DC: World Bank. Last Accessed on September 2, 2025. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/4d781a1f-ace4-420d-9192-964bbc98b0d1
Yavuz, M. Hakan, and Michael M. Gunter. 2023. The Karabakh Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan. DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-16262-6
