Virtual Clinical Trials

  • Mark Parker ZEM Solutions Ltd.

Abstract


Double Blind randomised controlled trials are the gold standard in estimating the clinical effect of medications, with pivotal phase 3 clinical trials forming the foundation a total revolution in healthcare decision making over recent decades. However, such trials are prohibitively expensive to conduct and the probability of a successful launch of a new medicine ranges from only 3% in nervous system disorders to 16% in anti-infectives . By considering Markov and Discrete Event Simulation models, now used extensively in post launch decision making globally, it is possible to conduct “virtual trials” at all launch phases to robustly analyse medications and their value as treatments.

References

Dowden H, Munro J. Trends in clinical success rates and therapeutic focus Nature reviews. Drug discovery vol. 18,7 (2019): 495-496

Mauskopf, J. Meeting the NICE requirements: a Markov model approach.” Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research vol. 3,4 (2000): 287-93.

Published
2022/10/18
Section
Invited lectures Session 2