SREDNJOROČNI PREGLED TRŽIŠTA MEKE PŠENICE U REPUBLICI HRVATSKOJ
Sažetak
Pristupanjem Hrvatske Evropskoj uniji (EU) dogodile su se brojne značajne promene na ključnim poljoprivrednim tržištima. To se prvenstveno odnosi na otvaranje domaćeg tržišta i prilagođavanje proizvodnje i poslovanja unutar jedinstvenog EU tržišta, uvođenje mera i instrumenata Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike i konvergencija domaćih cena poljoprivredno-prehrambenih proizvoda. U procenama uticaja integracionih procesa, te za razvoj srednjoročnih simulacija tržišta poljoprivrednih proizvoda obično se koriste sofisticirani alati poput ekonometrijskih modela parcijalne ravnoteže (PE). U istraživanju korišten je AGMEMOD (PE) model pomoću kojeg je razvijana simulacija pregleda tržišta meke pšenice u Republici Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine. Rezultati modela simuliraju buduće trendove glavnih agrano-političkih pokazatelja (setvenu površinu, proizvodnju, prinos, uvoz, izvoz i prosečnu proizvođačku cenu) na tržištu meke pšenice. Pregled tržišta meke pšenice na hrvatskom tržištu pretpostavlja ceteris paribus tržišne uslove sa postojećom strukturom poljoprivredne politike do kraja simuliranog perioda.
Glavni nalazi simuliranog pregleda ukazuju na blagi trend rasta zasijanih površina, nastavak rasta prinosa i proizvodnje, kao i porast izvoza meke pšenice u Hrvatskoj do 2030. godine u odnosu na 2018. godinu. Takođe, očekuje se da će stepen samodovoljnosti meke pšenice u Hrvatskoj iznositi 114% do kraja simuliranog perioda.
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