KOJA JE SVRHA JAVNOG DUGA U SEVERNOJ MAKEDONIJI - TEKUĆA, KAPITALNA ILI SOCIJALNA POTROŠNJA
Sažetak
Severna Makedonija kao predstavnik malih i otvorenih ekonomija u regionu, suočava se sa povećanjem budžetskog deficita i javnog duga (posebno u poslednjih nekoliko godina), što u uslovima smanjenog fiskalnog kapaciteta sve više naglašava pitanje raspodele sredstava iz zaduživanja. Namera Vlade je povećanje javnog duga kako bi se generisale investicije u infrastrukturu, stvorile buduće koristi za privredu u celini, kao i potencijal za budući oporavak duga - Ali da li je to zaista tako? U stvarnosti, kapitalni rashodi stagniraju, dok tekući budžetski izdaci i socijalni transferi stalno rastu. U ovom radu pokušavamo da istražimo dinamiku između rasta javnog duga i kretanja kapitalnih izdataka, tekućih rashoda i socijalnih transfera. Nadalje, fokusiramo se na istraživanje efekata koje svaka kategorija socijalnih transfera (penzije, naknade za nezaposlene, socijalna pomoć i transferi zdravstvenog osiguranja) ima na nivo javnog duga u zemlji. Koristimo VARMAX model na kvartalnim podacima za period od 2008. do drugog kvartila 2022. godine. Rezultati VARMAX modela pokazuju da šok javnog duga prati kratkoročno povećanje tekuće budžetske potrošnje. Ovo sugeriše da je država povećavala javni dug uglavnom za finansiranje tekućih budžetskih rashoda umesto ulaganja u ekonomsku i socijalnu infrastrukturu. Osim toga, analiza odnosa javnog duga i četiri različite kategorije socijalnih transfera pokazuje da šok javnog duga prati kratkoročno povećanje transfera zdravstvenog osiguranja.
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