POWER DIFFUSION AS THE THIRD DIMENSION OF COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE: CALIFORNIA AND OPENAI AS CASE STUDIES

  • Marina Todorović Beograd
  • Milica Šljivančanin Beograd
Keywords: diffusion of power, process, complex interdependence, subnational actors, transnational actors, California, OpenAI

Abstract


This paper analyzes the diffusion of power as the third dimension of complex interdependence (the first dimension being military and the second economic), a concept developed and later refined by American scholars Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye. By examining diffusion, or the dispersal of power, as one of the phenomena of international relations, the research focuses on subnational and transnational actors. Through two case studies – the U.S. state of California and the organization OpenAI – the paper investigates how economic, technological, and educational resources enable these actors to influence global power flows independently of the nation-state. The example of California demonstrates how a subnational entity can create innovative policies and set global standards in technology, education, and climate change. OpenAI, as a transnational private actor, shows that innovations in artificial intelligence can redefine the distribution of power and impact international relations beyond state structures. The paper illustrates that power diffusion is a dynamic process arising from the interaction of various actors, rather than a static state that can be “possessed”. This process, however, is sometimes conditioned by ethical considerations and almost always by political and commercial constraints. At the same time, the role of subnational and transnational actors, in this interaction, points to a transformation in the nature of influence within the contemporary global order.

References

Assembly Bill No. 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. Regular Session. Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006. Approved September 27, 2006. Accessed April 23, 2026. https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=200520060AB32

Baldassare, Mark. 2023. “California Is a Model for Climate Change Action When International Efforts Fall Short.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. July 20, 2023. Last accessed on October 1, 2025. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2023/07/california-is-a-model-for-climate-change-action-when-international-efforts-fall-short?lang=en

Bhatia, Aatish, and Amy Fan. 2025. “Nearly 20 Percent Fewer International Students Traveled to the U.S. in August.” The New York Times. Last accessed on October 4, 2025. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/10/06/upshot/us-international-student-travel.html

Boston Brand Media Education. 2025. “The Role of International Students in Global Innovation.” June 8, 2025. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://www.bostonbrandmedia.com/news/the-role-of-international-students-in-global-innovation

Bostrom, Nick. 2014. Superintelligence, Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press.

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions [C2ES]. n.d. “Federal Vehicle Standards.” Last accessed on October 3, 2025. https://www.c2es.org/content/regulating-transportation-sector-carbon-emissions/

City of Sacramento. 2021. “New Building Electrification Ordinance.” August 18, 2021. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.cityofsacramento.gov/content/dam/portal/cdd/Planning/Major-Projects/Electrification-of-New-Construction/Electrification-QA--REVISED-81821.pdf

CNN Business. 2025. “Microsoft and OpenAI reach non-binding deal to allow OpenAI to restructure.” September 12, 2025. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/11/tech/microsoft-openai-restructure

Coppola, Gabrielle, and Edward Ludlow. 2024. “Tesla to Open US Battery Plant with Equipment from China’s CATL.” Bloomberg. January 31, 2024. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/tesla-to-open-new-us-battery-plant-with-equipment-from-catl

Delany, Crystal. 2025. “The heart of tech: where data meets innovation in Silicon Valley.” Digital Realty. June 18, 2025. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.digitalrealty.com/resources/articles/silicon-valley-data-centers

Dias, Ana. 2023. “Affirming Subnational Diplomacy via Paris: California’s Climate Leadership.” USC Center on Public Diplomacy (CPD). December 1, 2023. Last accessed on October 1, 2025. https://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/affirming-subnational-diplomacy-paris-california%E2%80%99s-climate-leadership#:~:text=An%20illustration%20of%20this%20reality,)%20network%2C%20among%20other%20initiatives

Directorate-General for Climate Action. 2017. “EU and California in joint climate push, boost cooperation.” European Commission. November 7, 2017. Last accessed on October 3, 2025. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-reads/news/eu-and-california-joint-climate-push-boost-cooperation-2017-11-07_en

Duran, Manuel. 2011. “French regions as diplomatic actors: The case of Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.” French Politics (9) 4: 339–363. DOI:10.1057/fp.2011.16

Endicott, Sean. 2023. “OpenAI sneaks out website update, no longer lists Microsoft as minority owner.” Windows Central. December 19, 2023. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://www.windowscentral.com/microsoft/openai-sneaks-out-website-update-no-longer-lists-microsoft-as-minority-owner

Federal Highway Administration [FHWA]. 2021. “Project Profile: Sacramento High-Speed Electric Vehicle Charging Hub Project, California.” U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ipd/project_profiles/ca_sacramento_high_speed_ev_hub.aspx

Feldgoise, Jacob, and Remco Zwetsloot. 2020. "Estimating the Number of Chinese STEM Students in the United States, CSET Issue Brief." Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). DOI: 10.51593/20200023

Gill, Liz, Aleecia Gutierrez, and Terra Weeks. 2021. “2021 SB 100 Joint Agency Report, Achieving 100 Percent Clean Electricity in California: An Initial Assessment.” California Energy Commission. September 3, 2021. Last accessed on October 3, 2025. https://www.energy.ca.gov/publications/2021/2021-sb-100-joint-agency-report-achieving-100-percent-clean-electricity

Governor Gavin Newsom. 2023. “What Governor Newsom’s Trip to China Accomplished.” October 30, 2023. Last accessed on October 3, 2025. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/10/30/what-governor-newsoms-trip-to-china-accomplished/

Governor Gavin Newsom. 2025. “California is now the 4th largest economy in the world.” April 23, 2025. Last accessed on October 1, 2025. https://www.gov.ca.gov/2025/04/23/california-is-now-the-4th-largest-economy-in-the-world/

Howley, Daniel. 2026. “Musk threatened to turn OpenAI’s Altman and Brockman into ‘most hated men in America’ ahead of trial.” Yahoo Finance. May 4, 2026. Last accessed on May 5, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/article/musk-threatened-to-turn-openais-altman-and-brockman-into-most-hated-men-in-america-ahead-of-trial-180609792.html

Joint Venture Silicon Valley. 2022. “The 2022 Silicon Valley Index.” Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://jointventure.org/download-the-2022-index

Kaleem, Jaweed. 2024. “California retains No. 1 ranking for international student enrollment as concerns grow over Trump.” Los Angeles Times. November 17, 2024. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-11-17/california-international-students-open-doors-report

Keohane, Robert O., and Joseph S. Nye. 1977. Power and Interdependence, first edition. Boston; Toronto: Little, Brown and Company.

Keohane, Robert O., and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. 2011. Power and Interdependence, fourth edition. Boston: Pearson Longman.

Keohane, Robert O., and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. 2025. “The End of the Long American Century: Trump and the Sources of U.S. Power.” Foreign Affairs 104 (2): 68–79.

Kynett, Kathryn G. 2024. “The California Cap-and-Trade Program: Overview and Considerations for Congress.” Congress.gov. December 18, 2024. Last accessed on October 4, 2025. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48314

Meckling, Jonas, and Samuel Trachtman. 2024. “The home state effect: How subnational governments shape climate coalitions.” Governance (37) 3: 889–893 DOI: 10.1111/gove.12809

MIT Technology Review Insights. 2024. “Responsible technology use in the AI age.” MIT Technology Review. February 15, 2024. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/02/15/1087815/responsible-technology-use-in-the-ai-age/

Naj, Džozef S. 2006. Kako razumevati međunarodne sukobe, peto izdanje. Beograd: Stubovi kulture.

Nedeljković, Stevan. 2024. „Velika strategija Sjedinjenih Država – da li je kucnuo čas za uravnotežavanje s obale?” Međunarodni problemi 76 (3): 475–496. DOI: 10.2298/MEDJP2403475N

Novet, Jordan. 2023. “Microsoft’s $13 billion bet on OpenAI carries huge potential along with plenty of uncertainty.” CNBC. April 8, 2023. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/08/microsofts-complex-bet-on-openai-brings-potential-and-uncertainty.html

Nye, Joseph S. 1997. Understanding international conflicts An Introduction to Theory and History, second edition. Boston: Longman.

Nye, Joseph S. 2012. “The Twenty-First Century Will Not Be a ‘Post-American World’.” International Studies Quarterly 56 (1): 215–217. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00698.x

Nye, Joseph S., Jr. 2015. Is the American Century over?. Cambridge: Polity Press.

OECD. 2019. “Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence, OECD/LEGAL/0449.” OECD Legal Instruments. Last accessed on May 6, 2026. https://legalinstruments.oecd.org/en/instruments/OECD-LEGAL-0449

Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. 2017a. “Governor Brown to Expand California’s Climate Partnership with China in Chengdu, Nanjing and Beijing.” June 2, 2017. Last accessed on October 3, 2025. https://archive.gov.ca.gov/archive/gov39/2017/06/02/news19821/index.html

Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. 2017b. “U.S. Climate Alliance Adds 10 New Members to Coalition Committed to Upholding the Paris Accord.” June 5, 2017. Last accessed on October 4, 2025 https://archive.gov.ca.gov/archive/gov39/2017/06/05/news19831/index.html

OpenAI. 2015. “Introducing OpenAI.” December 11 2015. Last accessed on October 4, 2025. https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai/

OpenAI. 2023. “Our approach to AI safety.” April 5, 2023. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://openai.com/index/our-approach-to-ai-safety

OpenAI. 2025a. “Open weights and AI for all.” August 5, 2025. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://openai.com/global-affairs/open-weights-and-ai-for-all/

OpenAI. 2025b. “The EU Code of Practice and future of AI in Europe.” Global Affairs. July 11, 2025. Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://openai.com/global-affairs/eu-code-of-practice/

OpenAI Developers. 2023. “Rate limits, Understand API rate limits and restrictions.” Last accessed on October 10, 2025. https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/guides/rate-limits

Reuters. 2024. “Exclusive: China battery giant CATL would build US plant if Trump allows it.” November 13, 2024. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-battery-giant-catl-would-build-us-plant-if-trump-allows-it-2024-11-13/

Schelenz, Robyn. 2025. “UC leads American public research universities in global impact, new rankings show.” University of California. June 26, 2025. Last accessed on October 2, 2025. https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/uc-leads-american-public-research-universities-global-impact-new-rankings-show#:~:text=All%2010%20UC%20campuses%20are%20among%20the,ranking%20from%20U.S.%20News%20&%20World%20Report

Simić, Dragan R., i Dragan Živojinović. 2013. „Različita viđenja rasporeda moći u međunarodnim odnosima posle Hladnog rata.” U Srbija u evropskom i globalnom kontekstu, ur. Radmila Nakarada i Dragan Živojinović, 17–45. Beograd: Fakultet političkih nauka.

Toronto.edu. n.d. “Ilya Sutskever.” Last accessed on October 5, 2025. https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~ilya/

Published
2026/05/07
Section
Articles