Decision making model in forest road network management

Srđan H. Dimić; Srđan D. Ljubojević

doi:10.5937/vojtehg67-18446

Srđan H. Dimić Univerzitet odbrane u Beogradu, Vojna akademija, Katedra logistike
Srđan D. Ljubojević Univerzitet odbrane u Beogradu, Vojna akademija, Katedra logistike

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg67-18446

Ključne reči: Forest road network||, ||mreža šumskih puteva, decision making||, ||odlučivanje, strategy||, ||strategija, FDA’WOT model||, ||FDA’WOT model, fuzzy Delphi||, ||fuzzy delfi, fuzzy SWOT||, ||fuzzy SWOT, AHP||, ||AHP,

Sažetak

Eksploatacija šumskih resursa i ostvarenje punog potencijala šuma zavise od gustine i kvaliteta mreže šumskih puteva. Kako treba da zadovolji više funkcija, ona ima strategijski značaj u upravljanju šumama. Pri planiranju razvoja mreže šumskih puteva, donosioci odluka moraju da uzmu u obzir brojne tehnološke, ekonomske, društvene i prirodne ‒ ekološke faktore, što znači da je neophodan sveobuhvatan i funkcionalan pristup. U ovom radu prikazan je hibridni metodološki okvir za formulisanje smernica na kojima treba definisati stretegiju razvoja državne mreže šumskih puteva. U tu svhu predložena je fuzzy modifikacija A'WOT metode. Predloženi model, nazvan FDA’WOT model, zasnovan je na ideji da se kroz kombinaciju fuzzy delfi tehnike, fuzzy SWOT (snage ‒ Strenghts, slabosti ‒ Weaknesses, šanse ‒ Opportunities, pretnje ‒ Threats) analize i analitičkog hijerarhijskog procesa (AHP) obezbedi konceptualni okvir za izbor optimalne strategijske opcije. FDA’WOT model omogućava prevazilaženje problema klasične SWOT analize koji se odnose na neodređenosti i neizvesnosti prilikom procene karaktera, uticaja i relativne važnosti strategijskih faktora. On predstavlja formalni okvir za višekriterijumsko odlučivanje, koji omogućava da se na analitičan način odredi prioritet alternativnih strategijskih opcija i izabere optimalna. Predloženi model primenjen je na primeru izbora strategijske opcije razvoja mreže šumskih puteva u Republici Srbiji, a prezentovani rezultati pokazuju da FDA’WOT model stvara uslove za formulaciju održive strategije.

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Model odlučivanja pri upravljanju mrežom šumskih puteva

Sažetak

Reference

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