The second Covid-19 wave of 2020 in Italy: a brief analysis
Abstract
Introduction/purpose: Based on the results obtained previously, the second wave of Covid-19 infection is analyzed and some predictions on its evolution are given.
Methods: A model of population growth giving a differential equation has been used to describe the pandemic wave.
Results: The second wave of infection is essentially on its peak in the middle of November 2020 and will not decrease very soon.
Conclusions: The second wave is not going to end in the year 2020 and it will take some time before a status of relative normality is restored.
References
Fabiano, N. & Radenović, S. 2020a. On COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: data analysis and possible outcome. Vojnotehnički glasnik/Military Technical Courier, 68(1), pp.216-224. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg68-25948.
Fabiano, N. & Radenović, S. 2020b. What could happen after the first wave of COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: learning from the 1918 influenza pandemic. Vojnotehnički glasnik/Military Technical Courier, 68(3), pp.413-423. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg68-26500.
-Ministero della Salute. 2020. Data of COVID-19 disease situation in Italy 2020 [online]. Available at: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/master/dati-andamento-nazionale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv (in Italian) [Accessed: 18 November 2020].
Verhulst, PF. 1838. Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement. Correspondance mathématique et physique, 10, pp.113-121 (in French).
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