Definisanje rizika na putnim deonicama pri transportu opasnog tereta u Vojsci Srbije primenom modela linearnog matematičkog programiranja
Sažetak
Uvod/cilj: U radu je predstavljen model za izbor rute, za transport opasnog tereta, upotrebom modela DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) i fuzzy logičkih sistema. Prikazani model se koristi za definisanje rizika na putnim deonicama pri transportu opasnog tereta, kao i za izbor optimalne rute za realizaciju transportnog zadatka.
Metode: Model se sastoji od dve faze. U prvoj fazi je primenjena metoda DEA koja se sastoji od dva modela: imputa i autputa, povezana u izlazni DEA final model, koji pokazuje rute sa zadovoljavajućim stepenom bezbednosti saobraćaja i istovremeno eliminiše rute sa niskim stepenom bezbednosti saobraćaja. Druga faza uključuje primenu fuzzy logičkih sistema, a kao izlaz iz fuzzy sistema data je preferencija prema ruti. Evaluacija rute vrši se na osnovu šest kriterijuma, a to su: dužina rute, broj pristupnih tačaka, PGDS (prosečan godišnji dnevni saobraćaj), broj saobraćajnih nezgoda sa poginulim licima, broj saobraćajnih nezgoda sa povređenim licima i broj saobraćajnih nezgoda sa materijalnom štetom. Kada se unesu vrednosti ulaznih kriterijuma, vrši se proračun i evaluacija, pri čemu se, kao izlaz iz razvijenog sistema, dobija preferencija prema unetoj ruti (ruta sa najmanjim nivoom rizika). Korišćeni kriterijumi definisani su na osnovu ekspertskih procena.
Rezultati: Korisnički program koristi se kao podrška u odlučivanju organima saobraćajne službe.
Zaključak: Korisnička platforma kreirana je u programskom paketu Matlab R2015a i pruža mogućnost nadogradnje i prilagođavanja konkretnom problemu.
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