EPIDEMIOLOŠКE КARAКTERISTIКE I TREND КRETANJA POROĐAJA U SRBIJI

Snežana Radovanović; Milena Maričić; Slađana  Radivojević; Predrag  Stanojlović; Divna  Simović Šiljković; Marija Mujković; Mirjana Gazdić

doi:10.5937/zdravzast49-28585

Snežana Radovanović Кatedra za Socijalnu medicinu, Fakultet medicinskih nauka Univerziteta u Кragujevcu, Srbija
Milena Maričić Akademija strukovnih studija Beograd, odsek Visoka zdravstvena škola strukovnih studija, Beograd, Srbija
Slađana Radivojević Dom zdravlja Topola, Srbija
Predrag Stanojlović Specijalna bolnica za hiperbaričnu medicinu, Vrnjačka Banja, Srbija
Divna Simović Šiljković Dom zdravlja Gornji Milanovac, Srbija
Marija Mujković Dom zdravlja Lapovo, Srbija
Mirjana Gazdić Specijalizant opšte medicine, Fakulteta medicinskih nauka Univerziteta u Кragujevcu, Kragujevac, Srbija

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/zdravzast49-28585

Ključne reči: Deskriptivna studija, fertilitet, trend

Sažetak

Uvod/Cilj: U poslednjih nekoliko decenija pad stope fertiliteta je zabeležen u gotovo svim državama sveta. Cilj istraživanja je analiza epidemioloških karakteristika i trenda kretanja porođaja u Srbiji u periodu 2007-2016. godine.

Metode: Istraživanje je dizajnirano kao deskriptivna epidemiološka studija. Podaci su preuzeti iz Zdravstveno statističkih godišnjaka za period 2007-2016. godine. U analizi podataka korišćene su opšta stopa fertiliteta, stopa mortinataliteta, stopa rađanja, stopa mortaliteta odojčadi i stopa prevremenih porođaja, a trend stopa analiziran je korišćenjem jednačine linearnog trenda.

Rezultati: Prosečna stopa opšteg fertiliteta u Srbiji u periodu 2007-2016. godine je bila 1,5 deteta po ženi. U periodu 2007-2016. godine u Srbiji je registrovano 660.069 porođaja sa ukupno 671.715 rođene dece, od kojih je 4.054 mrtvorođeno (0,6%). Dve trećine (66,1%) mrtvorođene dece je bilo prevremeno rođeno. Sa starošću porodilja raste broj prevremenih porođaja. Od 667.661 živorođenih u porodilištima je umrlo 924 novorođenčadi (0,1%). U posmatranom periodu registruje se kontinuirani trend opadanja broja porođaja (y=68.427-439,99x, R2=0,628), kao i broja živorođene dece (y=69.084-421,44x, R2=0,591). Trend stopa mrtvorođenih (mortinataliteta) pokazuje neznatno opadanje (y=6,138-0,012x, R2=0,016), kao i trend stopa mortaliteta novorođenčadi (y=1,882-50,091x, R2=0,683), ali dolazi do porasta trenda opšte stope fertiliteta (y=39,481+0,242x, R2=0,544). Prosečna opšta stopa fertiliteta za desetogodišnji period iznosila je 41,1 živorođenih na 1000 žena fertilnog perioda i kretala se od 38,2‰ do 41,7‰. Najveće povećanje stope fertilititeta beleži se u starosnoj grupi 40-44 godine sa 3,8‰ u 2007. godini na 9,9‰ u 2016. godini (2,6 puta više), a zatim u starosnoj grupi 30-39 godina sa 43,2‰ u 2007. godini na 63,0‰ u 2016. godini (1,4 puta više). Beleži se pad stope fertiliteta u starosnoj dobi 20-29 godina sa 80,4‰ u 2007. godini na 72,2‰ u 2016. godini. Najveće stope mrtvorođenosti (mortinataliteta) beleže se u najstarijoj grupi 45-49 godine (23,3‰), a najniža kod osoba mlađih od 15 godina (0,7‰).

Zaključak: Mere politike prema revitalizaciji rađanja moraju angažovati sve nivoe društva na izgradnji svesti i moralne odgovornosti prema fertilitetu.

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