RANJIVOST POLJOPRIVREDE NA KLIMATSKE PROMENE NA OSNOVU PERCEPCIJE FARMERA
Ključne reči:
klimatske promene, osetljivost poljoprivrede, rizici, upitnik
Sažetak
U skladu sa već osmotrenim trendovima povećanja temperature vazduha, izmenjenog režima padavina i produžetka vegetacione sezone, kao i sa predviđanjima da će se klimatski uslovi u Srbiji izrazito pogoršavati, a rizici u poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji povećavati, cilj ovog rada je da se proceni ranjivost poljoprivredne proizvodnje u Srbiji pod uticajem klimatskih promena na osnovu percepcije farmera. Tim eksperata iz svih oblasti poljoprivrede i upravljanja vodama i zemljištem, je sastavio pitanja za “on line” anketu, poluotvorenog tipa. Prikupljanje podataka je vršeno putem interneta, uglavnom se oslanjajući na društvene mreže. Na upitnik je odgovorilo ukupno 141 ispitanik. Analiza podataka je vršena putem deskriptivne statistike a primenjena je analiza glavnih kompomenti (PCA) s Varimax rotacijom. Uočena su dva faktora (i) uticaj klimatskih promena na rizike u poljoprivredi (ii) šteta izazvana klimatskim promenama. Analiza varijanse (ANOVA) i Student’s t test su korišćeni za ispitivanje uzoraka nezavisnih od razlike, dok je povezanost dve promenljive testirana Pearson-ovim koeficijentom.
Na osnovu dobijenih podataka, analizirane su štete koje poljoprivrednici trpe usled klimatskih promena i smanjenje prihoda u odnosu na uobičajene prihode, a shodno proizvodnji kojom se poljoprivrednici bave. Takođe su identifikovani pozitivni efekati klimatskih promena. Sagledana je potreba za obukom u oblasti ublažavanja posledica klimatskih promena. Po mišljenju farmera najznačaniji uticaji klimatskih promena su pojave ekstremno visoke temperature, suša i pojava kasnih prolećnih mrazeva i grada. Klimatske promene su se najviše odrazile na pad prinosa, na pojavu novih bolesti i štetočina i na smanjenje tolerantnosti useva na postojeće štetočine i bolesti. Farmeri su pokazali veliku zainteresovanost za obuku o merama adaptacije i mitigacije u poljoprivredi.
Reference
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Azhoni, A., Goyal, M. K. (2018). Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities. Science of The Total Environment, 626, 468-477.
Barkmann, T., Siebert, R., Lange, A. (2017). Land-use experts’ perception of regional climate change: an empirical analysis from the North German Plain. Climatic Change, 144(2), 287-301.
Church, S.P., Dunn, M., Babin, N., Mase, A.S., Haigh, T., Prokopy, L.S. (2018). Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern US Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management. Agriculture and Human Values, 35(2), 349-365.
Census of Agriculture (2012). Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Retrieved February 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/
Ćosić, M., Lukić, M., Stričević, R., Đurović, N., 2011. Irrigation development in Western Serbia. Conference on soil and water management 11. University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, January 24, 2001. Proceedings, p 122-128.
EEA - European Environment Agency, 2017. Retrieved November 28, 2018 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/key-past-and-projected-impacts-and-effects-on-sectors-for-the-main-biogeographic-regions-of-europe-3
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Russo, S., Vousdoukas, M., Alfieri, L., Outten, S., ... Cid, A. (2016). Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137(1-2), 105-119.
Findlater, K.M., Satterfield, T., Kandlikar, M., Donner, S.D. (2018). Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change. Climatic Change, 148(4), 451-465.
Grimberg, B.I., Ahmed, S., Ellis, C., Miller, Z., Menalled, F. (2018). Climate Change Perceptions and Observations of Agricultural Stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains. Sustainability, 10(5), 1687.
Grothmann, T., Patt, A., 2005. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environ. Change 15 (3), 199–213.
Holland, M. B., Shamer, S. Z., Imbach, P., ..., Harvey, C.A., 2017. Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale. Climatic Change, 141(1), 139-153.
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Billir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Geniova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1132
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Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., …..Georgopoulou, E. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg. Environ. Change 1; 14(2), 563-78.
Jancic, M., Lalic, B., Mihailovic, D.T., Jacimovic, G. (2015). Impact of climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization effect on irrigation water demand and yield of soybean in Serbia. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 153(08), 1365-1379.
Jankó, F., Németh, N., Bertalan, L., & Pappné Vancsó, J. (2017). Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study. Studies in agricultural economics, 119(2), 55-61.
Juhola, S., Klein, N., Käyhkö, J., Neset, T.S.S. (2017). Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?. Journal of rural studies, 51, 28-36.
Khatri-Chhetri, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.,K., Vyas, S. (2017). Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural systems, 151, 184-191.
Lalic, B., Eitzinger, J., Mihailovic, D.T., Thaler, S., Jančić, M. (2013). Climate change impacts on winter wheat yield change – which climatic parameters are crucial in Pannonian lowland? The Journal of Agricultural Science, 151, 757-774.
Li, C., Leal Filho, W., Wang, J., Yin, J., Fedoruk, M., Bao, G., ..., Hu, R. (2018). An assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the vegetation in Mongolian Plateau: Using a scenarios-based analysis to support regional adaptation and mitigation options. Ecological Indicators, 95, 805-814.
Marchildon, G.P., Wheaton, E., Fletcher, A.J., Vanstone, J. (2016). Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record. Natural Hazards, 82(1), 245-266.
Masud, M.M., Azam, M.N., Mohiuddin, M., Banna, H., Akhtar, R., Alam, A.F., Begum, H. (2017). Adaptation barriers and strategies towards climate change: Challenges in the agricultural sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 156, 698-706.
Mihailović, D.T., Lalić, B. Drešković, N., Mimić, G., Djurdjević, V., Jančić, M. (2015). Climate change effects on crop yields in Serbia and related shifts of Köppen climate zones under the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2, Int. J. Climatol. 35, 3320–3334.
NAP (2015). First national adaptation plan in climate change condition. Ministry of Agriculture and environmental protection. Retrieved December 3, 2018 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NAP-UNDP-2015-srpski.pdf
Neset, T.S., Wiréhn, L., Opach, T., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.O. (2018). Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.042
Niles, M.T., Lubell, M., Brown, M. (2015). How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 200, 178-185.
Robinson, G.M., Bardsley, D.K., Raymond, C.M., ,..... Bardsley, A.M. (2018). Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Farmers and Peri-Urban Fringe Residents in South Australia. Environments, 5(3), 40.
Republic Hydrometeorological Service (Republic of Serbia). Retrieved April 1, 2019 from http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/klimatologija_srbije.php
Ruml, M, Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Djurdjević, V., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N., Matijašević, S., Petrović, N. (2012). On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric Forest Meteorol, 158, 53-62
SNC (2015). Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Serbia. Retirieved March 30, 2019 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Drugi-izvestaj-o-promeni-klime-SNC_Srbija.pdf
Statistical year book (2018). Retrieved March 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/publication/?p=11525
Statistical office of R. Serbia Retrieved March 15, 2019 from http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/Pdf/G201714014.pdf
Stričević R.J., Djurović, N.Lj., Vuković, A.J., Vujadinović, M.P., Ćosić M.D., Pejić B.S. (2014). Application of Aquacrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 59 (3),301-317.
Stricevic, R., Stojakovic, N., Vujadinovic-Mandic, M., & Todorovic, M. (2018). Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Journal of Agricultural Science,156(5), 618-627. doi:10.1017/S0021859617000557
Takahashi, B., Burnham, M., Terracina-Hartman, C., Sopchak, A. R., Selfa, T. (2016). Climate change perceptions of NY state farmers: the role of risk perceptions and adaptive capacity. Environmental management, 58(6), 946-957.
Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S., Downing, T. E. (2016). How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain. Regional environmental change, 16(1), 59-70.
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., Rebetez, M. (2018). Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248, 60-69.
Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B., Kristofersson, D. (2017). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy, 65, 109-120
Azhoni, A., Goyal, M. K. (2018). Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities. Science of The Total Environment, 626, 468-477.
Barkmann, T., Siebert, R., Lange, A. (2017). Land-use experts’ perception of regional climate change: an empirical analysis from the North German Plain. Climatic Change, 144(2), 287-301.
Church, S.P., Dunn, M., Babin, N., Mase, A.S., Haigh, T., Prokopy, L.S. (2018). Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern US Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management. Agriculture and Human Values, 35(2), 349-365.
Census of Agriculture (2012). Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Retrieved February 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/
Ćosić, M., Lukić, M., Stričević, R., Đurović, N., 2011. Irrigation development in Western Serbia. Conference on soil and water management 11. University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, January 24, 2001. Proceedings, p 122-128.
EEA - European Environment Agency, 2017. Retrieved November 28, 2018 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/key-past-and-projected-impacts-and-effects-on-sectors-for-the-main-biogeographic-regions-of-europe-3
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Russo, S., Vousdoukas, M., Alfieri, L., Outten, S., ... Cid, A. (2016). Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137(1-2), 105-119.
Findlater, K.M., Satterfield, T., Kandlikar, M., Donner, S.D. (2018). Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change. Climatic Change, 148(4), 451-465.
Grimberg, B.I., Ahmed, S., Ellis, C., Miller, Z., Menalled, F. (2018). Climate Change Perceptions and Observations of Agricultural Stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains. Sustainability, 10(5), 1687.
Grothmann, T., Patt, A., 2005. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environ. Change 15 (3), 199–213.
Holland, M. B., Shamer, S. Z., Imbach, P., ..., Harvey, C.A., 2017. Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale. Climatic Change, 141(1), 139-153.
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Billir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Geniova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1132
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1535, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., …..Georgopoulou, E. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg. Environ. Change 1; 14(2), 563-78.
Jancic, M., Lalic, B., Mihailovic, D.T., Jacimovic, G. (2015). Impact of climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization effect on irrigation water demand and yield of soybean in Serbia. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 153(08), 1365-1379.
Jankó, F., Németh, N., Bertalan, L., & Pappné Vancsó, J. (2017). Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study. Studies in agricultural economics, 119(2), 55-61.
Juhola, S., Klein, N., Käyhkö, J., Neset, T.S.S. (2017). Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?. Journal of rural studies, 51, 28-36.
Khatri-Chhetri, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.,K., Vyas, S. (2017). Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural systems, 151, 184-191.
Lalic, B., Eitzinger, J., Mihailovic, D.T., Thaler, S., Jančić, M. (2013). Climate change impacts on winter wheat yield change – which climatic parameters are crucial in Pannonian lowland? The Journal of Agricultural Science, 151, 757-774.
Li, C., Leal Filho, W., Wang, J., Yin, J., Fedoruk, M., Bao, G., ..., Hu, R. (2018). An assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the vegetation in Mongolian Plateau: Using a scenarios-based analysis to support regional adaptation and mitigation options. Ecological Indicators, 95, 805-814.
Marchildon, G.P., Wheaton, E., Fletcher, A.J., Vanstone, J. (2016). Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record. Natural Hazards, 82(1), 245-266.
Masud, M.M., Azam, M.N., Mohiuddin, M., Banna, H., Akhtar, R., Alam, A.F., Begum, H. (2017). Adaptation barriers and strategies towards climate change: Challenges in the agricultural sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 156, 698-706.
Mihailović, D.T., Lalić, B. Drešković, N., Mimić, G., Djurdjević, V., Jančić, M. (2015). Climate change effects on crop yields in Serbia and related shifts of Köppen climate zones under the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2, Int. J. Climatol. 35, 3320–3334.
NAP (2015). First national adaptation plan in climate change condition. Ministry of Agriculture and environmental protection. Retrieved December 3, 2018 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NAP-UNDP-2015-srpski.pdf
Neset, T.S., Wiréhn, L., Opach, T., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.O. (2018). Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.042
Niles, M.T., Lubell, M., Brown, M. (2015). How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 200, 178-185.
Robinson, G.M., Bardsley, D.K., Raymond, C.M., ,..... Bardsley, A.M. (2018). Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Farmers and Peri-Urban Fringe Residents in South Australia. Environments, 5(3), 40.
Republic Hydrometeorological Service (Republic of Serbia). Retrieved April 1, 2019 from http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/klimatologija_srbije.php
Ruml, M, Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Djurdjević, V., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N., Matijašević, S., Petrović, N. (2012). On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric Forest Meteorol, 158, 53-62
SNC (2015). Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Serbia. Retirieved March 30, 2019 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Drugi-izvestaj-o-promeni-klime-SNC_Srbija.pdf
Statistical year book (2018). Retrieved March 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/publication/?p=11525
Statistical office of R. Serbia Retrieved March 15, 2019 from http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/Pdf/G201714014.pdf
Stričević R.J., Djurović, N.Lj., Vuković, A.J., Vujadinović, M.P., Ćosić M.D., Pejić B.S. (2014). Application of Aquacrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 59 (3),301-317.
Stricevic, R., Stojakovic, N., Vujadinovic-Mandic, M., & Todorovic, M. (2018). Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Journal of Agricultural Science,156(5), 618-627. doi:10.1017/S0021859617000557
Takahashi, B., Burnham, M., Terracina-Hartman, C., Sopchak, A. R., Selfa, T. (2016). Climate change perceptions of NY state farmers: the role of risk perceptions and adaptive capacity. Environmental management, 58(6), 946-957.
Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S., Downing, T. E. (2016). How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain. Regional environmental change, 16(1), 59-70.
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., Rebetez, M. (2018). Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248, 60-69.
Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B., Kristofersson, D. (2017). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy, 65, 109-120
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