VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN SERBIA – FARMERS’ ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND DAMAGES
Keywords:
climate change, agriculture vulnerability, risks, questionnaire
Abstract
Considering the already observed trends of increasing air temperatures, changes in precipitation regimes, and extension of the growing season, as well as predictions that climate conditions in Serbia will deteriorate and the risk to farming increase, the objective of this research is to assess the vulnerability of agriculture in Serbia to climate change, based on farmers’ perceptions. A team of experts in all areas of agriculture and soil and water management compiled a questionnaire for a semi-open online survey. The snowball sampling approach was followed, relying on personal contacts and social media. In total, 141 farmers responded to the questionnaire. The data is evaluated through descriptive statistics. The differences by region, activity and topography are tested by ANOVA and Student’s t test. The feedback is used to assess the damages sustained by farmers due to climate change and reduced revenues in their respective areas of agricultural activity. Certain positive effects of climate change are also identified. A need for training in climate change impact mitigation is noted. The collected data are analyzed by descriptive statistics. The surveyed farmers believe that the most important effects of climate change are periods of extreme high temperature, droughts, late spring frost, and hail. Climate change seems to be reducing yields, facilitating the appearance of new diseases and pests, and causing a lower tolerance to existing diseases and pests. Farmers express considerable interest in climate change impact adaptation and mitigation training.
References
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Barkmann, T., Siebert, R., Lange, A. (2017). Land-use experts’ perception of regional climate change: an empirical analysis from the North German Plain. Climatic Change, 144(2), 287-301.
Church, S.P., Dunn, M., Babin, N., Mase, A.S., Haigh, T., Prokopy, L.S. (2018). Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern US Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management. Agriculture and Human Values, 35(2), 349-365.
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Findlater, K.M., Satterfield, T., Kandlikar, M., Donner, S.D. (2018). Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change. Climatic Change, 148(4), 451-465.
Grimberg, B.I., Ahmed, S., Ellis, C., Miller, Z., Menalled, F. (2018). Climate Change Perceptions and Observations of Agricultural Stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains. Sustainability, 10(5), 1687.
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Jankó, F., Németh, N., Bertalan, L., & Pappné Vancsó, J. (2017). Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study. Studies in agricultural economics, 119(2), 55-61.
Juhola, S., Klein, N., Käyhkö, J., Neset, T.S.S. (2017). Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?. Journal of rural studies, 51, 28-36.
Khatri-Chhetri, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.,K., Vyas, S. (2017). Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural systems, 151, 184-191.
Lalic, B., Eitzinger, J., Mihailovic, D.T., Thaler, S., Jančić, M. (2013). Climate change impacts on winter wheat yield change – which climatic parameters are crucial in Pannonian lowland? The Journal of Agricultural Science, 151, 757-774.
Li, C., Leal Filho, W., Wang, J., Yin, J., Fedoruk, M., Bao, G., ..., Hu, R. (2018). An assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the vegetation in Mongolian Plateau: Using a scenarios-based analysis to support regional adaptation and mitigation options. Ecological Indicators, 95, 805-814.
Marchildon, G.P., Wheaton, E., Fletcher, A.J., Vanstone, J. (2016). Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record. Natural Hazards, 82(1), 245-266.
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NAP (2015). First national adaptation plan in climate change condition. Ministry of Agriculture and environmental protection. Retrieved December 3, 2018 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NAP-UNDP-2015-srpski.pdf
Neset, T.S., Wiréhn, L., Opach, T., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.O. (2018). Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.042
Niles, M.T., Lubell, M., Brown, M. (2015). How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 200, 178-185.
Robinson, G.M., Bardsley, D.K., Raymond, C.M., ,..... Bardsley, A.M. (2018). Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Farmers and Peri-Urban Fringe Residents in South Australia. Environments, 5(3), 40.
Republic Hydrometeorological Service (Republic of Serbia). Retrieved April 1, 2019 from http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/klimatologija_srbije.php
Ruml, M, Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Djurdjević, V., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N., Matijašević, S., Petrović, N. (2012). On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric Forest Meteorol, 158, 53-62
SNC (2015). Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Serbia. Retirieved March 30, 2019 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Drugi-izvestaj-o-promeni-klime-SNC_Srbija.pdf
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Stričević R.J., Djurović, N.Lj., Vuković, A.J., Vujadinović, M.P., Ćosić M.D., Pejić B.S. (2014). Application of Aquacrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 59 (3),301-317.
Stricevic, R., Stojakovic, N., Vujadinovic-Mandic, M., & Todorovic, M. (2018). Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Journal of Agricultural Science,156(5), 618-627. doi:10.1017/S0021859617000557
Takahashi, B., Burnham, M., Terracina-Hartman, C., Sopchak, A. R., Selfa, T. (2016). Climate change perceptions of NY state farmers: the role of risk perceptions and adaptive capacity. Environmental management, 58(6), 946-957.
Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S., Downing, T. E. (2016). How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain. Regional environmental change, 16(1), 59-70.
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., Rebetez, M. (2018). Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248, 60-69.
Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B., Kristofersson, D. (2017). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy, 65, 109-120
Azhoni, A., Goyal, M. K. (2018). Diagnosing climate change impacts and identifying adaptation strategies by involving key stakeholder organisations and farmers in Sikkim, India: Challenges and opportunities. Science of The Total Environment, 626, 468-477.
Barkmann, T., Siebert, R., Lange, A. (2017). Land-use experts’ perception of regional climate change: an empirical analysis from the North German Plain. Climatic Change, 144(2), 287-301.
Church, S.P., Dunn, M., Babin, N., Mase, A.S., Haigh, T., Prokopy, L.S. (2018). Do advisors perceive climate change as an agricultural risk? An in-depth examination of Midwestern US Ag advisors’ views on drought, climate change, and risk management. Agriculture and Human Values, 35(2), 349-365.
Census of Agriculture (2012). Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Retrieved February 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/
Ćosić, M., Lukić, M., Stričević, R., Đurović, N., 2011. Irrigation development in Western Serbia. Conference on soil and water management 11. University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, January 24, 2001. Proceedings, p 122-128.
EEA - European Environment Agency, 2017. Retrieved November 28, 2018 from https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/key-past-and-projected-impacts-and-effects-on-sectors-for-the-main-biogeographic-regions-of-europe-3
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Russo, S., Vousdoukas, M., Alfieri, L., Outten, S., ... Cid, A. (2016). Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137(1-2), 105-119.
Findlater, K.M., Satterfield, T., Kandlikar, M., Donner, S.D. (2018). Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change. Climatic Change, 148(4), 451-465.
Grimberg, B.I., Ahmed, S., Ellis, C., Miller, Z., Menalled, F. (2018). Climate Change Perceptions and Observations of Agricultural Stakeholders in the Northern Great Plains. Sustainability, 10(5), 1687.
Grothmann, T., Patt, A., 2005. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environ. Change 15 (3), 199–213.
Holland, M. B., Shamer, S. Z., Imbach, P., ..., Harvey, C.A., 2017. Mapping adaptive capacity and smallholder agriculture: applying expert knowledge at the landscape scale. Climatic Change, 141(1), 139-153.
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Billir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Geniova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1132
IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1535, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., …..Georgopoulou, E. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg. Environ. Change 1; 14(2), 563-78.
Jancic, M., Lalic, B., Mihailovic, D.T., Jacimovic, G. (2015). Impact of climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization effect on irrigation water demand and yield of soybean in Serbia. The Journal of Agricultural Science, 153(08), 1365-1379.
Jankó, F., Németh, N., Bertalan, L., & Pappné Vancsó, J. (2017). Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study. Studies in agricultural economics, 119(2), 55-61.
Juhola, S., Klein, N., Käyhkö, J., Neset, T.S.S. (2017). Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?. Journal of rural studies, 51, 28-36.
Khatri-Chhetri, A., Aggarwal, P.K., Joshi, P.,K., Vyas, S. (2017). Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies. Agricultural systems, 151, 184-191.
Lalic, B., Eitzinger, J., Mihailovic, D.T., Thaler, S., Jančić, M. (2013). Climate change impacts on winter wheat yield change – which climatic parameters are crucial in Pannonian lowland? The Journal of Agricultural Science, 151, 757-774.
Li, C., Leal Filho, W., Wang, J., Yin, J., Fedoruk, M., Bao, G., ..., Hu, R. (2018). An assessment of the impacts of climate extremes on the vegetation in Mongolian Plateau: Using a scenarios-based analysis to support regional adaptation and mitigation options. Ecological Indicators, 95, 805-814.
Marchildon, G.P., Wheaton, E., Fletcher, A.J., Vanstone, J. (2016). Extreme drought and excessive moisture conditions in two Canadian watersheds: comparing the perception of farmers and ranchers with the scientific record. Natural Hazards, 82(1), 245-266.
Masud, M.M., Azam, M.N., Mohiuddin, M., Banna, H., Akhtar, R., Alam, A.F., Begum, H. (2017). Adaptation barriers and strategies towards climate change: Challenges in the agricultural sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, 156, 698-706.
Mihailović, D.T., Lalić, B. Drešković, N., Mimić, G., Djurdjević, V., Jančić, M. (2015). Climate change effects on crop yields in Serbia and related shifts of Köppen climate zones under the SRES-A1B and SRES-A2, Int. J. Climatol. 35, 3320–3334.
NAP (2015). First national adaptation plan in climate change condition. Ministry of Agriculture and environmental protection. Retrieved December 3, 2018 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NAP-UNDP-2015-srpski.pdf
Neset, T.S., Wiréhn, L., Opach, T., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.O. (2018). Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.05.042
Niles, M.T., Lubell, M., Brown, M. (2015). How limiting factors drive agricultural adaptation to climate change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 200, 178-185.
Robinson, G.M., Bardsley, D.K., Raymond, C.M., ,..... Bardsley, A.M. (2018). Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons from Farmers and Peri-Urban Fringe Residents in South Australia. Environments, 5(3), 40.
Republic Hydrometeorological Service (Republic of Serbia). Retrieved April 1, 2019 from http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/klimatologija_srbije.php
Ruml, M, Vuković, A., Vujadinović, M., Djurdjević, V., Ranković-Vasić, Z., Atanacković, Z., Sivčev, B., Marković, N., Matijašević, S., Petrović, N. (2012). On the use of regional climate models: implications of climate change for viticulture in Serbia. Agric Forest Meteorol, 158, 53-62
SNC (2015). Second report of the Republic of Serbia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Serbia. Retirieved March 30, 2019 from http://www.klimatskepromene.rs/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Drugi-izvestaj-o-promeni-klime-SNC_Srbija.pdf
Statistical year book (2018). Retrieved March 3, 2019 from http://www.stat.gov.rs/sr-cyrl/publikacije/publication/?p=11525
Statistical office of R. Serbia Retrieved March 15, 2019 from http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/Pdf/G201714014.pdf
Stričević R.J., Djurović, N.Lj., Vuković, A.J., Vujadinović, M.P., Ćosić M.D., Pejić B.S. (2014). Application of Aquacrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 59 (3),301-317.
Stricevic, R., Stojakovic, N., Vujadinovic-Mandic, M., & Todorovic, M. (2018). Impact of climate change on yield, irrigation requirements and water productivity of maize cultivated under the moderate continental climate of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Journal of Agricultural Science,156(5), 618-627. doi:10.1017/S0021859617000557
Takahashi, B., Burnham, M., Terracina-Hartman, C., Sopchak, A. R., Selfa, T. (2016). Climate change perceptions of NY state farmers: the role of risk perceptions and adaptive capacity. Environmental management, 58(6), 946-957.
Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Bharwani, S., Fronzek, S., Downing, T. E. (2016). How can irrigated agriculture adapt to climate change? Insights from the Guadiana Basin in Spain. Regional environmental change, 16(1), 59-70.
Vitasse, Y., Schneider, L., Rixen, C., Christen, D., Rebetez, M. (2018). Increase in the risk of exposure of forest and fruit trees to spring frosts at higher elevations in Switzerland over the last four decades. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 248, 60-69.
Woods, B.A., Nielsen, H.Ø., Pedersen, A.B., Kristofersson, D. (2017). Farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture. Land Use Policy, 65, 109-120
Published
2020/10/15
Section
Original Scientific Paper