VALUE OF PERMANENT CROPS IN THE GROSS VALUE ADDED IN AGRICULTURE
Keywords:
Gross domestic product (GDP), GVA, intermediate consumption, agricultural output, permanent crops
Abstract
The aim of the research is to analyze the impact of the value of the production of permanent crops (fruit and viticulture sector) on the realized gross value added (abbr. GVA) in agriculture in Serbia and the EU from 2012 to 2022. The results were obtained by applying a multiple regression model where the dependent variable is GVA in agriculture, and the independent variables represent the production values of the fruit and viticulture sector (in EUR mln). The coefficients of the model were tested using the t-test, and the model was verified using the F-test at a significant level of 0.05. The value of the standardized beta coefficient showed that the fruit growing sector has a greater influence on the realized GVA of agriculture in Serbia and the EU (0.532 vs. 0.852), the t-values for Serbia belong to the critical area in both sectors, while in the EU the t-values for the viticulture sector do not belong to the critical area areas. The F-test values showed that the fitted model is significant at the 0.05 significant level for both observation areas. An analysis of the presence of multicollinearity in variable variables was also conducted, and the results showed that there is a weak multicollinearity originating from the value of viticulture production.
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Akter, J. (2014). Bootstrapped Durbin–Watson test of autocorrelation for small samples. ABC Journal of Advanced Research, 3(2), 137-142.
Albu, N., Zubrzycki, K., Scholz, R., Ostwald, D.A., Somweber K., and Haut, S. (2020). The Direct Gross Value Added Calculation Method, Basel/Berlin/Darmstadt, September 2020.
Baer-Nawrocka, A. (2016). The role of agriculture in the national economy of EU countries. Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development, 2016(42).
Brankov, T., & Matkovski, B. (2022). Is a Food Shortage Coming to the Western Balkans?. Foods, 11(22), 3672.
Chen, Y. (2016). Spatial autocorrelation approaches to testing residuals from least squares regression. PloS one, 11(1), e0146865,
Dašić, D., Stanić, T., & Živković, D. (2022). Market of agricultural and food products in the Republic of Serbia: possibilities and implications. Economic of agriculture, 69(1), 57-74. doi:10.5937/ekoPolj2201057D
Dey, S. (2022). Impacts of major crop production on the agricultural sector in Bangladesh: a time series analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Research, 9(1), 10-17.
FAO (2020). Smallholders and family farms in Serbia. County study report. 2019. Budapest. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Budapest, 2020., https://doi.org/10.4060/ca7449en
FAO (2020a) International Telecommunication Union. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Status of Digi¬tal Agriculture in 18 Countries of Europe and Central Asia, Ge¬neva, Switzerland: FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-132889-7.
FAOSTAT (2024). Eletronic database, https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/OA (accessed: 10 July 2024)
Giannakis, E., & Bruggeman, A. (2015). The highly variable economic performance of European agriculture. Land use policy, 45, 26-35., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.12.009.
Grujić, B., Simonović, Z., & Ćurčić, N. (2021): Importance of agriculture and food industry in the economy of the Republic of Serbia, Chapter in a book “Harnessing Tangible and Intangible Assets in the context of European Integration and Globalization. Challenges ahead”, Proceedings of ESPERA 2019, Volume 2, National Institute for Economic Research, Bucharest, Romania, Peter Lang, Berlin, pp. 971-982.
Grujić Vučkovski, B., Paraušić, V., Jovanović Todorović, M., Joksimović, M., & Marina, I. (2022). Analysis of influence of value indicators agricultural production on gross value added in Serbian agriculture. Custos e Agronegocio, 18(4), 349-372.
Investopedia (2024). Durbin Watson Test: What It Is in Statistics, With Examples, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durbin-watson-statistic.asp (accessed: 10 July 2024)
Ionitescu, S. (2023). The role of agriculture in Romania's economy in the period 2013-2022. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture & Rural Development, 23(4).
Kriščiukaitienė, I., & Baležentis, T. (2011). EFFICIENCY OF THE LITHUANIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: RETURN ON FIXED ASSETS, OUTPUT, AND VALUE ADDED. Management Theory & Studies for Rural Business & Infrastructure Development, 28(4).
Matthew, A., & Mordecai, D. B. (2016). The impact of agricultural output on economic development in Nigeria (1986-2014). Archives of Current Research International, 4(1), 1-10.
Megyesiova, S. (2021). Production, employment and productivity of agricultural sector in the European Union. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 27(5), pp. 846-858.
National Bank of Serbia (NBS), 2024. Average exchange rate, https://nbs.rs/en/finansijsko_trziste/medjubankarsko-devizno-trziste/kursna-lista/prosecni-kursevi/index.html (accessed: 02 July 2024)
Nikolić, R., Fedajev, A., Stefanović, V., & Ilić, S. (2017). The Agriculture Sector in Western Balkans–Some Characteristics of Development. Economic of agriculture, 64(1), p. 275-293.
Popescu, A., Dinu, T. A., Stoian, E., & Serban, V. (2021a). Efficiency of labor force use in the European Union's agriculture in the period 2011-2020. Scientific Papers Series “Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 21(3), 659-672.
Popescu, A. (2021b). Romania's contribution to the European Union's agriculture in the period 2010-2020, Annals of Academy of Romanian Scientists, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 88-106.
Pawlak, K., Smutka, L., & Kotyza, P. (2021). Agricultural potential of the EU countries: how far are they from the USA?. Agriculture, 11(4), 282.
Reddy, T. K., & Dutta, M. (2018). Impact of agricultural inputs on agricultural GDP in Indian economy. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8(10), 1840.
Sahu, P., & Gartia, R. (2022). Sectorwise gross value added (GVA) in Odisha: A statistical analysis. International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, 7(4), 128-135.
Teshome, A., & Lupi, A. (2018). Determinants of agricultural gross domestic product in Ethiopia. International Journal of Research Studies in Agricultural Sciences (IJRSAS), 4(2), 12-20.
Užar, D., & Radojević, V. (2019). The importance of agriculture in forming gross value added in Serbia in the period of 2008-2017. Economic of agriculture, 66(4), 1091-1105.
Volk, T., M. Rednak, E. Erjavec, I. Rac, E. Zhllima, G. Gjeci, S. Bajramović, Ž. Vaško, M. Kerolli-Mustafa, E. Gjokaj, B. Hoxha, D. Dimitrievski, A. Kotevska, I. Janeska Stamenkovska, D. Konjevic, M. Spahic, N. Bogdanov, & M. Stevović (2019). Agricultural policy developments and EU approximation process in the Western Balkan countries. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
Zsarnóczai, J. S., & Zéman, Z. (2019). Output value and productivity of agricultural industry in Central-East Europe. Agricultural Economics/Zemědělská Ekonomika, 65(4).
Published
2024/12/26
Section
Original Scientific Paper