МИГРАЦИЈЕ КА ЕВРОПИ У КОНТЕКСТУ ТЕОРИЈЕ СУКОБА ЦИВИЛИЗАЦИЈА САМЈУЕЛА ХАНТИНГТОНА
Sažetak
У оквиру чланка феномен масовних миграција милиона особа из земаља Африке и Азије ка Европи посматра се из перспективе теорије сукоба цивилизација Самјуела Хантингтона. Нагласак је стављен на безбједносну димензију ових процеса те њихов подстицај могуће трансформације земаља савремене Западне Европе унутар Хантингтонове категоризације типова држава. Рад је превасходно посвећен разматрању односа између западне и исламске цивилизације, како их Хантингтон дефинише. Различито схватање миграција на истоку и западу Европе наглашава Западну Европу као простор првенствено изложен трансформацији од стране миграционих процеса. Посматрајући демографска кретања аутохтоног европскога становништва и придошлих мигрантских заједница, заједно са демографским трендовима унутар муслиманских земаља, чланак истиче могућност преласка најзначајнијих западноевропских земаља, које су јасно профилисане као саставни елементи западне цивилизације, у категорију расцијепљених и подијељених држава. Истовремено, текст посвећује пажњу и значају појединаца као носилаца идентитета, те у томе контексту препознаје узајамно-повратну спрегу између транзиционих процеса на степену држава које формулише Хантингтон те миграторних кретања и демографских трендова мигрантске популације. Закључак истиче значај демографије за Хантингтонову теорију цивилизација с обзиром на то да управо од демографске присутности и снаге зависе и границе државе унутар једне цивилизације.
Reference
Bornman, E (2017). Globalisation, communication and identity. Pretoria: University of South Africa.
Burner, B. (2012). Religiousness And Fertility Among Muslims In Europe: Does Islam Influence Fertility? Oslo: Akershus University College.
Heath, A. & Richards, L. (2018). How do Europeans differ in their attitudes to immigration? Findings from the European Social Survey 2002/03 – 2016/17. Paris: OECD.
Huntington, S. (1996). The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon&Schuster.
Huntington, S. (2004). Who Are We. New York: Simon&Schuster.Krastev, I. (2017). After Europe. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Miera, F. (2007). Multiculturalism Debates in Germany – A European Approach to Multicultural Citizenship: Legal, Political and Educational Challenges. Frankfurt: European University Viadrina.
Muenz, R & Yaryyeva, J. (2024). Immigration to Europe: The Big Picture for the EU and Its Member States. Brussels: The Wilfred Martens Center for European Studies.
Szczepanikova, A. & Criekinge, T. (2018). The Future of Migration in the European Union. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
Tawney, R.H. (1926). Religion and the Rise of Capitalism: A Historical Study. Harcourth: Brace and Company.
Weber, M. (1930). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. London: George Allen & Unwin.
Avtsinova, G. (2019). Crisis of German Policy of Multiculturalism: Indicators, Socio-Political Consequences, Ways of Settlement and Development Prospects. International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering, 8(12), 4046‒4048.
Bal, M., Aradi, E. & Yerkes, Mara A. (2024). „Keep Europe for the Europeans”. The Role of Threat Perceptions and Intergroup Contact for Explaining Attitudes towards Immigrants in Hungary. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 13(1), 89‒107.
Chen, G & Zhang, K. (2010). New Media and Cultural Identity in the Global Society. Handbook of Research on Discourse Behavior and Digital Communication: Language Structures and Social Interaction, 795‒809.
Cook, L. (2022). Trying to Reverese Demographic Decline: Pro-Natalist and Family Policies in Russia, Poland and Hungary. Social Policy and Society, 22(2), 1‒21.
Davidov, E. & Semyonov, M. (2017). Attitudes towards immigrants in European societies. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 58(2), 359‒366.
Fargues, P. (2001). Demographic Islamization: Non-Muslims in Muslim Countries. SAIS Review, 21(2), 103‒116.
Godsi, M., Leitner, S., Tverdostup, M. (2025). Migration vs. automation as an answer to labour shortages: Firm-level analysis for Austria. Working Papers, 262.
Huntington, S. (1993). The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 22‒49.
Kettani, H. (2010). Muslim Population in Europe: 1950-2020. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 1(2), 154‒164.
Mahasneh, I. & Ebrahim, F. (2024). The epidemiological declining in the human fertility rate in the Arab world for 10 years period 2011–2021. Middle East Fertility Society Journal, 29(47).
Nedeljković, Z. (2016). Tumačenje Hantingtonove teze o sukobu civilizacija kao plemenskom sukobu globalnih razmera. Zbornik radova Filozofskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Prištini, 46(1), 217‒232.
Pailhe, A. (2017). The convergence of second-generation immigrants’ fertility patterns in France: The role of socioculutural distance between parents’ and host country. Demographic Research, 36(45), 1361‒1398.
Schahbasi, A., Huber. S., Fieder, M. (2021). Factors affecting attitudes toward migrants – An evolutionary approach. American Journal of Human Biology, 33(1), 1‒13.
Szanto, I. (2021). Child and Family Benefits to Halt Hungary’s Population Decline, 1965‒2020: A Comparison with Polish and Romanian Family Policies. Hungarian Cultural Studies, 14, 80‒98.
Anoba, I. (2019). How a Population of 4.2 Billion Could Impact Africa by 2100: The Possible Economic, Demographic, and Geopolitical Outcomes. Posjećeno 17. 12. 2024 URL: https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/how-a-population-of-4-2-billion-could-impact-africa-by-2100-the-possible-economic-demographic-and-geopolitical-outcomes/
Boussemart, J. & Godet, M. (2018). Europe 2050: Demographic Suicide. Posjećeno 17. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/0462-europe-2050-demographic-suicide
Chatham House (2023). What Do Europeans Think About Muslim Immigration? Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2017/02/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration
Chawla, P. (2024). Europe facing identity challenge. Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/columns/pc/2024/Jul/15/europe-facing-identity-challenge
Conte, A., Mazza, J. (2019). Migrants and Welfare Dependency: Evidence from the EU. Posjećeno 28. 11. 2025. URL: https://knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/tr_final_after_last_revision_21052019.pdf
Eberstadt, N. & Shah, A. (2012). Fertility Decline in the Muslim World. Posjećeno 13. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.hoover.org/research/fertility-decline-muslim-world
Economist (2023). The world’s peak population may be smaller than expected. Posjećeno 17. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/04/05/the-worlds-peak-population-may-be-smaller-than-expected
European Commission (2017). Europe: EU citizens want to stop immigration from Muslim countries. Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://migrant-integration.ec.europa.eu/news/europe-eu-citizens-want-stop-immigration-muslim-countries_en
Eurostat (2024). Demography of Europe – 2024 Edition. Posjećeno 18. 12. 2024. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/interactive-publications/demography-2024#population-change
Eurostat (2024). Fertility statistics. Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Fertility_statistics
Gov.UK (2023). Age groups. Posjećeno 18. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/demographics/age-groups/latest/#age-profile-by-ethnicity
Hedayatifar, L. et al. (2018). U.S. Social Fragmentation at Multiple Scales. Posjećeno 27. 11. 2025. URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.07676
International Organization for Migration (2024). World Migration Report 2024. Posjećeno 25. 11. 2025. URL: https://worldmigrationreport.iom.int/what-we-do/foreword/foreword
Karim, M. (2005). Demographic and Socio-economic Situation in Muslim Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Posjećeno 16. 12. 2024. URL: https://file.pide.org.pk/pdf/psde20AGM/Demographic%20and%20Socio-economic%20Situation%20in%20Muslim%20Countries%20%20A%20Comparative%20Analysis.pdf
Karnitsching, M. (2024). Europe’s economic apocalypse is now. Posjećeno 20. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-economic-apocalypse/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter
Kramer, S. & Tong Y. (2024). The Religious Composition of the World’s Migrants. Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2024/08/19/migrants-living-in-each-region/
Kushida, K. (2024). Japan's Aging Society as a Technological Opportunity. Posjećeno 27. 11. 2025. URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/japans-aging-society-as-a-technological-opportunity?lang=en
Lipka, M. & Hackett, C. (2017). Why Muslims are the world’s fastest-growing religious group. Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/
Mapstack (2024). Global Muslim Population by Country. Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://mapstack.io/map/6V2fpN/global-muslim-population-by-country-map-2024-estimates
Michta, A. (2024). Migration is Remaking Europe: Is There A Workable Path Forward For The Continent? Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.hoover.org/research/migration-remaking-europe-there-workable-path-forward-continent#_ftn1
Migration Data Portal (2024). International Migration Population (Stocks). Posjećeno 21. 11. 2025. URL: https://www.migrationdataportal.org/themes/international-migrant-stocks-overview
OECD (2024). Adressing labour and skills shortages in a fast-changing economy. Posjećeno: 28. 11. 2025. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/addressing-labour-and-skills-shortages-in-a-fast-changing-economy_757311cb-en.html
OECD (2025). The Global Forum on Productivity at 10: Past and Future Perspectives on Reviving Productivity Growth. Posjećeno 27. 11. 2025. URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/the-global-forum-on-productivity-at-10_ca7295d9-en/full-report/from-symptoms-to-solutions-the-structural-roots-of-labour-shortages_08668d47.html
Pew Research Center (2015). The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010‒2050. Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/
Pew Research Center (2017). Europe’s Growing Muslim Population. Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
Pew Research Center (2018). An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters. Posjećeno 25. 11. 2025. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/
Roever, C. (2017). Integration of Muslims into German Society. Posjećeno 23. 11. 2025. URL: https://www.menloschool.org/live/files/2944-carlaroevergermanymuslimspdf
Scroll (2022). Muslims’ fertility rate sees sharpest decline over two decades, shows health ministry survey. Posjećeno 13. 12. 2024. URL: https://scroll.in/latest/1023559/muslims-fertility-rate-sees-sharpest-decline-over-two-decades-shows-health-ministry-survey
Setiawati, S. (2024). Examining Automation and Migrant Labor for Productivity: A Literature Review. Posjećeno 28. 11. 2025. URL https://www.apo-tokyo.org/articles/examining-automation-and-migrant-labor-for-productivity-a-literature-review/
Statistics Times (2024). Population of Europe. Posjećeno 10. 12. 2024. URL: https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/europe-population.php
Stonawski, M., Potančoková, M., Skirbekk, V. (2012). Fertility patterns of native and migrant Muslims in Europe. Posjećeno 27. 11. 2025. URL: https://paa2012.populationassociation.org/papers/121522
The Guardian (2024). Young more anti-immigration than old in parts of Europe, polling shows. Posjećeno 11. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2024/may/28/young-more-anti-immigration-than-old-in-parts-of-europe-polling-shows
Wike, R., Stokes, B. & Simmons, K (2016). Europeans Fear Wave of Refugees Will Mean More Terrorism, Fewer Jobs. Posjećeno 16. 12. 2024. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2016/07/11/europeans-fear-wave-of-refugees-will-mean-more-terrorism-fewer-jobs/
World Bank Group (2024). Total fertility rate. Posjećeno 13. 12. 2024. URL: https://genderdata.worldbank.org/en/indicator/sp-dyn-tfrt-in
Sva prava zadržana (c) 2025 Autori
Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo 4.0 međunarodnom licencom.
Autori koji objavljuju u ovom časopisu pristaju na sljedeće uslove:
- Autori zadržavaju autorska prava i pružaju časopisu pravo prvog objavljivanja rada i licenciraju ga "Creative Commons Attribution licencom" koja omogućava drugima da dijele rad, uz uslov navođenja autorstva i izvornog objavljivanja u ovom časopisu.
- Autori mogu izraditi zasebne, ugovorne aranžmane za neekskluzivnu distribuciju članka objavljenog u časopisu (npr. postavljanje u institucionalni repozitorijum ili objavljivanje u knjizi), uz navođenje da je članak izvorno objavljen u ovom časopisu.
- Autorima je dozvoljeno i podstiču se da postave objavljeni članak onlajn (npr. u institucionalni repozitorijum ili na svoju internet stranicu) prije ili tokom postupka prijave rukopisa, s obzirom da takav postupak može voditi produktivnoj razmjeni ideja i ranijoj i većoj citiranosti objavljenog članka (Vidi Efekti otvorenog pristupa).