Modelovanje neizvesnosti primenom intuitivnih fazi brojeva
Sažetak
Uvod/cilj: U radu je razmatran izbor najpovoljnijeg dobavljača na primeru besposadne letelice, u slučaju kada donosilac odluke raspolaže podacima kvalitativnog karaktera. Problemi koji se javljaju u praksi pri izboru dobavljača odnose se na izbor adekvatnih kriterijuma, kao i način na koji ih donosilac odluke ocenjuje. Jedan od načina ocenjivanja kriterijuma kvalitativnog karaktera jeste korišćenje lingvističkih izraza, koji donosiocu odluke daju slobodu da svoj stav i mišljenje iskaže pomoću opisnih ocena. Ovakav način ocenjivanja nije najprecizniji, što donosiocu odluke može izazvati određenu dozu neizvesnosti. .
Metode: Za rešavanje problema neizvesnosti, u radu je predložena metoda modelovanja podataka primenom intuitivnih fazi brojeva. Oni su pogodni za rešavanje problema neizvesnosti u situacijama kada je potrebno da se preispita sigurnost prilikom ocenjivanja. Za rangiranje dobavljača u radu se koristi metoda ELEKTRE koja je prilagođena intuitivnim fazi brojevima (IF ELEKTRE). Metoda IFS ELEKTRE odabrana je zbog toga što jasno prezentuje potencijal svih dobavljača, odnosno njihove prednosti i nedostatke u odnosu na zahtevane kriterijume.
Rezultati: Korišćenjem IF ELEKTRE konačni rezultati pružaju sliku o međusobnoj preferentnosti, odnosno indiferentnosti između dobavljača. Rangiranjem su jasno prikazani potencijali svih dobavljača, što u nekoj narednoj nabavci može poslužiti kao referenca za donošenje odluke.
Zaključak: Doprinos ovog rada ogleda se u predloženom modelu koji u praksi može poslužiti za rešavanje problema izbora dobavljača, ali i sličnih problema kada se odluka donosi na osnovu nepreciznih podataka. Korišćenjem navedenih modela smanjuje se neodlučnost i subjektivnost pri donošenju odluke.
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