Primjene nejednakosti Čebiševa u preliminarnoj ocjeni opravdanosti realizacije solarne termalne elektrane

Ključne reči: vjerovatnoća, slučajna promjenljiva, disperzija, srednja vrijednost, oblačan dan, solarno zračenje, solarne termalne elektrane

Sažetak


Uvod/cilj: U radu su predstavljene neke primjene nejednakosti Čebiševa. Pomoću nejednakosti Čebiševa analizirana je preliminarna ocjena opravdanosti realizacije solarne termalne elektrane na prostoru Banje Luke. Cilj ove preliminarne analize jeste da se dokaže, bez investicionih ulaganja, da li su opravdana mjerenja klimatskih parametara na tom području.

Metode: Za poznate vrijednosti aritmetičkih sredina i standardnih devijacija broja oblačnih dana, primjenom Čebiševljeve nejednakosti definisana je vjerovatnoća odstupanja broja oblačnih dana od srednje vrijednosti.

Rezultati: Na dijagramu su prikazane vrijednosti gornje i donje granice broja oblačnih dana koje odstupaju od očekivane vrijednosti sa vjerovatnoćom od 50%.

Zaključak: Preliminarna ocjena opravdanosti realizacije solarne termalne elektrane opravdava mjerenja koja su neophodna za analizu i detaljni proračun ovakve vrste postrojenja, jer je godišnji interval oblačnih dana od 94 do 164, odnosno od 26 do 44% perioda godine.

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2022/06/24
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