What could happen after the first wave of COVID-19 diffusion in Italy:  learning from the 1918 influenza pandemic

Nicola Fabiano; Stojan Radenović

doi:10.5937/vojtehg68-26500

What could happen after the first wave of COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: learning from the 1918 influenza pandemic

Nicola Fabiano Ton Duc Thang University, Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Ton Duc Thang University, Nonlinear Analysis Research Group, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1645-2071
Stojan Radenović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade, Republic of Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8254-6688

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg68-26500

Keywords: 1918 Influenza, Coronavirus, COVID-19, differential equation, data fit

Abstract

Introduction/purpose: A comparison of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza to the 2020 COVID–19 pandemic could shed some light on the evolution of the latter.

Method: A mathematical method previously applied to the description of the behavior of the spread of COVID–19 in time is used this time to the 1918 influenza.

Results: The obtained results were compared and some conclusions made about some possible forecasts for the next waves of COVID-19.

Conclusions: Some further waves of the 2020 pandemic should be expected in the future.

References

Fabiano, N. & Radenović, S. 2020. On COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: data analysis and possible outcome. Vojnotehnički glasnik/ Military Technical Courier, 68(1), pp.216-224. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg68-25948.

Fathizadeh, H., Maroufi, P., Momen-Heravi, M., Dao, S., Köse, S., Ganbarov, K., Pagliano, P., Espsoito, S., & Kafil, H.S. 2020. Protection and disinfection policies against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Le infezioni in medicina, 2020, 28(2), pp.185-191 [online]. Available at: https://www.infezmed.it/media/journal/Vol_28_2_2020_8.pdf [Accessed: 8 May 2020].

Rogers, K. 2020. 1968 flu pandemic. In: Encyclopædia Britannica. London: Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc. [online]. Available at: https://www.britannica.com/event/Hong-Kong-flu-of-1968 [Accessed: 8 May 2020].

Taubenberger, J.K. & Morens, D.M. 2006. 1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 12(1), pp.15-22. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1201.050979.

Verhulst, PF. 1838. Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement. Correspondance mathématique et physique, 10, pp.113–121 (in French).

Published

2020/06/01

Issue

Vol. 68 No. 3 (2020): July – September

Section

Original Scientific Papers

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