International security regimes in preventing the spread of nuclear armaments and their global significance

Keywords: security regimes, nuclear weapons, proliferation, nuclear tests, international agreements

Abstract


Introduction/purpose: The paper provides an overview of international regimes and agreements that aimed to halt the spread of nuclear weapons. For each regime, its impact on nuclear weapons proliferation is presented, as well as its significance in stopping nuclear tests that posed a threat of a global ecological catastrophe. Many of these regimes are no longer in effect today, but throughout history, they played their role in fulfilling specific needs to halt the global spread of nuclear weapons or characteristic nuclear weapons of a certain range. 

Methods: The paper analyses the international agreements in this field, as well as the papers in the field of nuclear safety from journals of international importance. 

Results: The analysis of nuclear security regimes gave results that speak of their strengths and weaknesses. The importance and weaknesses of the regimes are given through the analysis and several diagrams that show the trend of increasing the amount of nuclear weapons over time.

Conclusions: The work points to the historical importance of nuclear security regimes, but also to their weaknesses, both in earlier times and today. It is clear that these regimes halted nuclear weapons, but this halt did not lead to the complete abolition of nuclear weapons, which is the ultimate goal of the agreements.

References

Ahn, J., Park, J., Sim, H., An, G. & Seo, H. 2021. Design requirements of safeguards sealing system for real-time verification. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 36(4), pp.376-383. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP2104376A.

Akiyama, N. 2020. Nuclear weapons: arms-control efforts need China. Nature, 584, pp.40-42. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02282-9.

Alger, J. 2008. A Guide to Global Nuclear Governance: Safety, Security and Nonproliferation. Cigionline.org. Available at: h https://www.cigionline.org/static/documents/a_guide_to_nuclear_power.pdf [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Andrews, S.A., Andrews, M.T. & Mason, T.E. 2021. Canadian Contributions to the Manhattan Project and Early Nuclear Research. arXiv:2103.08582, 15 March. Available at: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2103.08582.

Beck, H.L., Simon, S.L., Bouville, A. & Romanyukha, A. 2020. Accounting for Unfissioned Plutonium from the Trinity Atomic Bomb Test. Health Physics, 119(4), pp.504-516. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1097/HP.0000000000001146.

Bergkvist, N.-O. & Ferm, R. 2000. Nuclear Explosions 1945 - 1998. Stockholm, Sweden: Defence Research Establishment, Div. of Systems and Underwater Technology [online]. Available at: https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:31060372 [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Boice, J.D., Cohen, S.S., Mumma, M.T., Chen, H., Golden, A.P., Beck, H.L. & Till, J.E. 2022. Mortality among U.S. military participants at eight aboveground nuclear weapons test series. International Journal of Radiation Biology, 98(4), pp.679-700. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/09553002.2020.1787543.

Bouville, A. 2020. Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Tests: Environmental, Health, Political, and Sociological Considerations. Health Physics, 118(4), pp.360-381. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1097/HP.0000000000001237.

Bugos, S. 2023. Russia Suspends New START. Arms Control Association, March [online]. Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-03/news/russia-suspends-new-start [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Bunn, G. 2003. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty: History and Current Problems. Arms Control Association [online]. Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Bunn [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Carlson, J. 2005. Safeguards and Non-Proliferation: Current Challenges and the Implications for Australia. In: Conference of the Australian Nuclear Association, Sydney, Australia, pp.1-9, November 10 [online]. Available at: https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/2005_060201_safeguards_presentation.pdf [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Carter, M.W. & Moghissi, A.A. 1977. Three Decades of Nuclear Testing. Health Physics, 33(1), pp.55-71. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1097/00004032-197707000-00006.

Chadwick, M.B. 2021. Nuclear Science for the Manhattan Project and Comparison to Today’s ENDF Data. Nuclear Technology, 207(1), pp.24-61. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00295450.2021.1901002.

Child, D.P. & Hotchkis, M.A.C. 2013. Plutonium and uranium contamination in soils from former nuclear weapon test sites in Australia. Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms, 294, pp.642-646. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nimb.2012.05.018.

Cooper, A.R. 2023. Inspectors for Peace: A History of the International Atomic Energy Agency by Elisabeth Roehrlich (review). Technology and Culture, 64(1), pp.254-256. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1353/tech.2023.0046.

Coupe, J., Bardeen, C.G., Robock, A. & Toon, O.B. 2019. Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. JGR Atmospheres, 124(15), pp.8522-8543. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030509.

D'auria, F.S. & Galassi, G.M. 2019. The Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty approach in nuclear reactor safety and licensing: Brief history and the elements after licensing. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 34(3), pp.299-312. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP190413022D.

Donohue, D.L. 2002. Key Tools for Nuclear Inspections. IAEA Bulletin, 44-2, June, pp.17-23 [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/publications/magazines/bulletin/44-2/key-tools-nuclear-inspections [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Drozdovitch, V., Bouville, A., Taquet, M., Gardon, J., Tetuanui, T., Xhaard, C., Ren, Y., Doyon, F. & de Vathaire, F. 2021. Thyroid Doses to French Plynesians Resulting from Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests: Estimates Based on Radiation Measurements and Populatin Lifestyle Data. Health Physics, 120(1), pp.34-55. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1097/HP.0000000000001262.

Gale, R.P. & Armitage, J.O. 2018. Are We Prepared for Nuclear Terrorism? The New England Journal of Medicine, 378(13), pp.1246-1254. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsr1714289.

Gillies, M. & Haylock, R.G.E. 2022. Mortality and cancer incidence 1952–2017 in United Kingdom participants in the United Kingdom's atmospheric nuclear weapon tests and experimental programmes. Journal of Radiological Protection, 42(2), art.number:021507. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6498/ac52b4.

Hain, K., Steier, P., Froehlich, M.B., Golser, R., Hou, X., Lachner, J., Nomura, T., Qiao, J., Quinto, F. & Sakaguchi, A. 2020. 233U/236U signature allows to distinguish environmental emissions of civil nuclear industry from weapons fallout. Nature Communications, 11, art.number:1275. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15008-2.

He, Q.-H., Li, T., He, X.-S., Lu, K.-K. & Wang, S.-K. 2021. A physically cryptographic hoteling observer for nuclear warhead verification. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 36(4), pp.358-363. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP2104358H.

-IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. 1970. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. IAEA.org (Information Circular) [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/infcircs/1970/infcirc140.pdf [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. 2015. IAEA Safeguards: Serving Nuclear Non-Proliferation. IAEA.org [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/safeguards_web_june_2015_1.pdf [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. 2022. IAEA and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. IAEA.org [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/topics/non-proliferation-treaty [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. 2023. IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency: About us. IAEA.org [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/about [Accessed: 10. July 2023].

-IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency. 2024. Fact Sheet on DPRK Nuclear Safeguards. IAEA.org [online]. Available at: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/dprk/fact-sheet-on-dprk-nuclear-safeguards [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Ilić, S., Radovanović, R., Milić, S., Aleksić, A. & Ivković, A. 2022. Nuklearna forenzika - metode za otkrivanje procesa proizvodnje, prometovanje i krijumčarenje nedozvoljenih fisionih materijala. In: Proceedings of LXVI Conference ETRAN 2022, Novi Pazar, Serbia, June 6-9 [online]. Available at: https://www.etran.rs/2022/zbornik/ETRAN-22_radovi/SSFO1.4.pdf (in Serbian) [Accessed: 15. January 2024]. ISBN: 978-86-7466-930-3.

Johansen, M.P., Child, D.P., Hotchkis, M.A.C., Johansen, A., Thiruvoth, S. & Whiting, S.D. 2020. Radionuclides in sea turtles at the Montebello Islands former nuclear test sites: Current and historical dose rates for adults and embryos. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 158, art.number:111390. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111390.

Johnson-Freese, J. 2017. Build on the outer space treaty. Nature, 550, pp.182-184. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/550182a.

Krass, A.S., Boskma, P., Elzen, B. & Smit, W.A. 2002. Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation (Routledge Library Editions: Nuclear Security), 1st Edition. London, UK: Routledge. ISBN: 978-0367523374.

Kristensen, H. & Korda, M. 2022. North Korean nuclear weapons, 2022. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 78(5), pp.273-294. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2022.2109341.

Kurosawa, M. 2021. Progress in Nuclear Disarmament during the 50 Years of the NPT. Osaka University Law Review, 68, pp.1-24 [online]. Available at: https://ir.library.osaka-u.ac.jp/repo/ouka/all/78529/oulr068-001.pdf [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Leikin, J.B., McFee, R.B., Walter, F.G. & Edsall, K. 2003. A primer for nuclear terrorism. Disease-a-Month, 49(8), pp.485-516. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0011-5029(03)00100-7.

López-Lora, M., Olszewski, G., Chamizo, E., Törnquist, P., Pettersson, H. & Eriksson, M. 2023. Plutonium Signatures in a Dated Sediment Core as a Tool to Reveal Nuclear Sources in the Baltic Sea. Environmental Science & Technology, 57(5), pp.1959-1969. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c07437.

Mayer, K., Wallenius, M. & Varga, Z. 2013. Nuclear Forensic Science: Correlating Measurable Material Parameters to the History of Nuclear Material. Chemical Review, 113(2), pp.884-900. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1021/cr300273f.

Mianji, F.A., Karimi, D.J. & Kardan, M.R. 2013. Internal dose assessment for environmental monitoring in nuclear power plant accidents. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 28(3), pp.325-331. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP1303325M.

Nikač, Ž.V., Stanković, S.J. & Radović, N.D. 2022. Legislative framework of nuclear security in the Republic of Serbia. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 37(3), pp.241-252. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP2203241N.

-NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative. 1959. Antarctic Treaty. NTI.org, 1 December [online]. Available at: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/antarctic-treaty/ [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative. 1996. Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). NTI.org, 24 September [online]. Available at: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/ [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2005. International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. NTI.org, 13 April [online]. Available at: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/international-convention-suppression-acts-nuclear-terrorism/ [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2024. FMCT: Proposed Fissile Material (Cut-off) Treaty (FMCT). NTI.org [online]. Available at: https://www.nti.org/education-center/treaties-and-regimes/proposed-fissile-material-cut-off-treaty/ [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Prăvălie, R. 2014. Nuclear Weapons Tests and Environmental Consequences: A Global Perspective. AMBIO, 43(6), pp.729-744. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0491-1.

Puentes, D., Kuhn, M.J., Boodoo, C., Smith, K.R. & Young, N.T. 2020. White Paper: The Possible Expiration of the New START, the Last Nuclear Bilateral Treaty Between the United States and the Russian Federation. Journal of Science Policy & Governance, 16(1), 13 April [online]. Available at: https://www.sciencepolicyjournal.org/article_1038126_jspg_16_01_09.html [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Reed, B.C. 2015. Nuclear weapons at 70: reflections on the context and legacy of the Manhattan Project. Physica Scripta, 90(8), art.number:088001. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1088/0031-8949/90/8/088001.

Riad, A., Drobov, A., Alkasaby, M.A., Peřina, A. & Koščik, M. 2023. Nuclear Anxiety Amid the Russian-Ukrainian War 2022 (RUW-22), Descriptive Cross-Sectional Study. International Journal of Environmental Research Public Health, 20(4), art.number:3551. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043551.

Ruff, T.A. 2022. Ending nuclear weapons before they end us: current challenges and paths to avoiding a public health catastrophe. Journal of Public Health Policy, 43, pp.5-17. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-021-00331-9.

Simon, S., Bouville, A. & Land, C. 2006. Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Tests and Cancer Risks: Exposures 50 years ago still have health implications today that will continue into the future. American Scientist, 94(1), pp.48-57. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1511/2006.57.48.

-SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 2023. SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. Sipri.org [online] Available at: https://www.sipri.org/yearbook/archive [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Sood, A., Forster, R.A, Archer, B.J. & Little, R.C. 2021. Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo. arXiv:2103.06260, 10 March. Available at: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2103.06260.

Šefl, M., Zhou, J.Y., Avtandilashvili, M., McComish, S.L. & Tolmachev, S.Y. 2021. Plutonium in Manhattan Project workers: Using autopsy data to evaluate organ content and dose estimates based on urine bioassay with implications for radiation epidemiology. PLOS ONE, 16(10), e0259057. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259057.

Sykes, L.R. & Evernden, J.F. 1982. The Verification of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban. Scientific American, 247(4), pp.47-55 [online]. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24966702 [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Tsai, M.-K. 2017. Enhancing Nucler Power Plant Safety Via on-site Mental Fatigue Management. Nuclear Technology & Radiation Protection, 32(1), pp.109-114. Available at: https://doi.org/10.2298/NTRP1701109T.

-United Nations. 1968. Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Treaties.unoda.org [online]. Available at: https://treaties.unoda.org/t/npt?_gl=1*14pc4k8*_ga*MTAyMjE4MzQxLjE2NDU4ODM2MjI.*_ga_TK9BQL5X7Z*MTY4ODczOTc2NS4xLjEuMTY4ODc0MDM2OS4wLjAuMA [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-United Nations. 2005. 15. International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. Treaties.un.org, 13 April [online]. Available at: https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetailsIII.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XVIII-15&chapter=18&Temp=mtdsg3&clang=_en [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-United Nations. 2006. Overview of Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones. Un.org [online]. Available at: https://www.un.org/nwfz/content/overview-nuclear-weapon-free-zones [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

-United Nations. 2024. International Day against Nuclear Tests 29 August. Un.org [online]. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-nuclear-tests-day/history [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Vilhelmsson A. & Baum, S.D. 2023. Public health and nuclear winter: addressing a catastrophic threat. Journal of Public Health Policy, 44, pp.360-369. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-023-00416-7.

Vlajnić, J.M. 2015. Principle of the peaceful use of outer space. Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta, Novi Sad, 49(3), pp.1419-1439 (in Serbian). Available at: https://doi.org/10.5937/zrpfns49-9647.

Wiesner, J.B. & York, H.F. 1964. National Security and the Nuclear-Test Ban. Scientific American, 211(4), pp.27-35 [online]. Available at: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24931658 [Accessed: 15. January 2024].

Published
2024/06/10
Section
Review Papers