On COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: data analysis and possible outcome

Nicola Fabiano; Stojan Radenović

doi:10.5937/vojtehg68-25948

On COVID-19 diffusion in Italy: data analysis and possible outcome

Nicola Fabiano Ton Duc Thang University, Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Ton Duc Thang University, Nonlinear Analysis Research Group, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1645-2071
Stojan Radenović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade, Republic of Serbia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8254-6688

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5937/vojtehg68-25948

Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, differential equation, data fit

Abstract

Introduction/purpose: At the end of 2019, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified first in the Hubei province of China and then it spread over the world causing the coronavirus pandemic. The virus has given very different outcomes in different countries up to day - at the time of writing, Italy has a record number of deaths caused by coronavirus (Google, 2020).

Methods: A mathematical model is applied to describe the behavior of number of cases with respect to time, the obtained data is compared and some predictions given.

Results: The model chosen to represent the evolution of the spread of the disease allows making some projections for the future.

Conclusions: Sound projections could be created with accurate numbers provided the current situation is not perturbed by other external influences.

References

Cereda, D. et al. 2020. The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy [online]. Available at: https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.09320 [Accessed: 31 March 2020].

-Google. 2020. COVID-19 Information & Resources [online]. Available at: https://www.google.com/covid19/ [Accessed: 31 March 2020].

-Ministero della Salute. 2020. Data of COVID-19 disease situation in Italy 2020 [online]. Available at: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/master/dati-andamento-nazionale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv (in Italian) [Accessed: 31 March 2020].

Verhulst, PF. 1838. Notice sur la loi que la population suit dans son accroissement. Correspondance mathématique et physique, 10, pp.113–121 (in French).

Published

2020/04/16

Issue

Vol. 68 No. 2 (2020): April – June

Section

Original Scientific Papers

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